Premier League predictions: Arsenal’s must-win clash, Newcastle and Tottenham’s continental six-pointer

Okay, here we go. No gimmicks, no excuses, just predictions. Previously in this weekly column, I have relied on the rolls of a dice, the bizarre musings of Artificial Intelligence, and even the whims of my pet husky to help me forecast the weekend’s Premier League results. Invariably, it has not ended well.

One seam I am yet to mine, however, is my own common sense. There is probably a pretty good reason for that, but at this stage I am willing to give anything a shot. So, in the interests of patching wounded pride - and convincing my editors that I do actually know something about football - allow me to take a sledgehammer to the artifice and get down to brass tax. Eight top flight matches, eight honest prognoses, no bells and/or whistles. (Manchester City and Brighton are going to win their respective FA Cup semi-finals, by the way.) Shall we begin?

Arsenal vs Southampton

There are must-win games, and then there are must-bloody-win games. For both sides, this is absolutely the latter. Arsenal’s advantage in the title race remains tangible but negligible, and they cannot afford to head into next week’s Etihad showdown with Manchester City under any more pressure than they already are.

For Southampton, the tendrils of relegation continue to twist and tighten around their ankles, and while mathematically they still have time to hack themselves to safety, the general sense of apathy and acceptance that has swept St. Mary’s in recent weeks would suggest that they are as good as doomed. A positive result in this one could be enough to defibrillate their ailing survival bid, but it feels unlikely.

In truth, were it not for the fact that Arsenal have clumsily dropped points in each of their last two matches, there would be no doubts over the outcome of this one whatsoever. As things stand, even taking that blip into consideration, there are still relatively few. Arsenal 3-0 Southampton.

Fulham vs Leeds United

In their last three halves of football, Leeds have conceded 11 goals. That’s not even an implosion, it’s more of an evaporation. The early promise shown under Javi Gracia has vanished in a firestorm of defensive capitulations, and any pretence of dragging themselves away from the gnashing jaws of the bottom three has gone with it.

As such, Saturday lunchtime’s trip to West London has taken on a decidedly vital hue. Anything less than a win could be damaging, but the Whites can take some solace from the fact that they are playing a side who have lost four out of their last five and who, ostensibly, have very little to play for at this stage of the campaign. It could still be a tricky day for the visiting Yorkshiremen, though. A 2-2 draw feels about right.

Crystal Palace vs Everton

I will hold my hands up; when Roy Hodgson returned to Crystal Palace I wrote a piece in which I argued that the decision to reappoint him screamed of regression and that the Eagles, if they weren’t careful, could be sucked wholesale back into the very relegation battle that they were trying to proactively avoid. I was wrong, and Roy, if you’re somehow reading this, I am very, very sorry that I doubted you.

Palace have soared under the veteran manager, taking nine points from their last three matches and scoring just as many goals in the process. They are now, to all intents and purposes, safe, and will have one eye on a top half finish.

Everton, for their part, are still in grave danger. Sean Dyche’s men sit above the bottom three on goal difference alone, and desperately need to tap into the gravel-voiced titan’s famed reserve of grit and fighting spirit. A few weeks ago, they might have marked this down as one of their few remaining winnable matches. Now, they won’t be so sure. Crystal Palace 3-1 Everton.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

Eight games, nine points; these are the obstacles that separate Liverpool from an improbable top four finish this season. The Reds have never really looked like securing a Champions League spot at any point during the current campaign, but an impressive draw against Arsenal and a systematic dismantling of Leeds United on Monday evening have fanned the embers of ludicrous optimism just a touch.

Realistically though, one misstep from here on out and the dream comes crashing down around them. For reasons of self-preservation, Nottingham Forest will be hoping to act as inconvenient saboteurs. Steve Cooper’s side haven’t won a game since February 5th, and as things stand, they are going down.

Stranger things have happened than a relegation-threatened outfit pulling out a big result at Anfield when they need it most - especially when Liverpool look as shaky as they do at present - but it does feel as if in this instance, three points may be beyond Forest. Liverpool 3-0 Nottingham Forest.

Brentford vs Aston Villa

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa are the form side in the Premier League at the moment, and there is a strong case for them being one of the stories of the season so far. When the Spaniard took over, the Villans were facing a genuine relegation threat. Now they are in the hunt for European qualification.

A win against Brentford would make it six on the spin, and nine unbeaten overall, and at this point, you would be a fool to bet against them. Factor in three consecutive defeats for Thomas Frank’s men, and this should only go one way. Then again, things don’t always pan out how you expect them to. Brentford 2-2 Aston Villa.

Leicester City vs Wolves

In fairness to Leicester, they did put up a little bit of a fight against Manchester City last weekend. Admittedly, by the time they’d laced up their gloves they were already three goals behind, but there was at least the hint of something like a backbone in there somewhere.

Ultimately, it wasn’t enough though, and with Wolves unbeaten in three, it might not be enough here either. Leicester 1-2 Wolves.

Newcastle United vs Tottenham

A proper six-pointer with a Champions League spot hanging in the balance. Quite how Spurs are still fifth and not, say, ninth, is something of a mystery. It genuinely feels as if they lose every other week, but instead of languishing in mid-table, here they are slugging it out for the top four.

As for Newcastle, even the most bullish of forecasts from their new owners wouldn’t have had them perching so highly at this late stage of the campaign, and a win on Sunday afternoon would install them as firm favourites for that final invitation to Europe’s top table. As much as both sides will want to win, they will also be desperate not to lose. A 1-1 draw inbound.

Bournemouth vs West Ham

Two clubs who will probably be safe come the end of the season, but who could use a few more points just to calm a few persistent jangling nerves. Credit where credit is due, Bournemouth have been superb of late, with three wins out of their last four matches, and Gary O’Neil deserves huge credit for the job he’s doing down on the south coast.

For their part, West Ham are stumbling along, just about getting by. They did enjoy a lovely dollop of success in the Europa Conference League on Thursday night, but whether that will have spurred them on or tired them out, only time will tell. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose on Sunday. Bournemouth 2-1 West Ham.