Why England can take huge hope into Euro 2024 quarter-final draw
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And then there were eight. Euro 2024 continues to hurtle along at a frankly sickening pace, and with just seven (seven!) matches remaining, we are edging ever closer to crowning the new kings of a continent.
Where this German iteration differs from many of its predecessors, however, is in the fact that, as yet, no one nation has properly staked a claim as definitive front-runners. Everybody has had their stumbles, of varying clumsiness, and as we creak open the hinges of the quarter-finals, it is no grand exaggeration to suggest that anybody - quite literally anybody - could win the entire thing.
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Hide AdTake Spain, for instance. Arguably the most consistently impressive team of the tournament so far, they have looked fluid and ruthless in equal measure, but thus far, are yet to meet a properly taxing challenge. In the group stage they swept aside an ageing Croatia before controlling proceedings against a highly lacklustre Italy. This was less a group of death, more a graveyard for lingering optimisms. A third victory over Albania, albeit courtesy of a second string, was less convincing, and against Georgia in the round of 16, despite an eventual 4-1 win, there were large swathes of the contest in which Luis de la Fuente’s were both frustrated by their plucky opponents and worryingly vulnerable on the counter attack. At the time of writing, the Spanish are the pick of the bunch, but not by much.
On Friday, they will play hosts Germany; themselves a gear or two beneath full tilt. There were moments of strong encouragement in the group, but a languid draw with Switzerland and a round of 16 triumph over Denmark decided by marginal (if technically correct) officiating hint towards chinks in the armour. Either way, one of the two most eye-catching teams left in the competition will be ousted by 8pm on Saturday evening.
Completing the more fearsome side of the draw, we have The People’s Republic of Cristiano Ronaldo - sorry, Portugal - and France. The former have laboured wheezingly at times, relying on an injury time winner against Czech Republic in their opener, the generosity of Turkey days later, and then crumbling shockingly against Georgia. In the first, tentative forays of the knockouts, they had Diogo Costa to thank wholly for avoiding a very, very embarrassing early exit at the hands of Slovenia.
As for the French, Kylian Mbappe’s new, enforced masked persona is emblematic of a squad playing as if trapped behind perspex. Just two own goals and a penalty have seen the World Cup finalists this far, and there is a sluggish malaise laced throughout their work. Belgium are no great shakes, and yet were it not for an unfortunate deflection, they would have taken them the distance.
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Hide AdDirectly opposite, we have the Netherlands, who admittedly looked better against Romania, but who also would have faced a seething inquest back home had they crashed out against a nation 40 places beneath them in the FIFA world rankings. Their hopes are tainted by the shadow of a massively underwhelming display against Austria last week.
They will face Turkey in the quarter-finals, fresh off the back of an obstinate victory over Ralf Rangnick’s men. The battle of the dark horses was settled by a militaristically executed campaign of suffocation, complemented by the odd moment of individual brilliance; Arda Guler was revelatory; Merih Demiral, immense; Mert Gunok, incalculably superhuman. If that same Turkish spirit rears its head on Saturday night, there is no reason why they couldn’t frustrate the Netherlands into submission too.
Then there is Switzerland, so steady and efficient against Italy, almost like, well, clockwork. Having already drawn with the much-fancied Germany, they will believe that they can give anybody a headache - especially in their own side of the draw - and given the broader context of this jumbled field, they might be right.
Which brings us to England. Sorry, grim England. Gareth Southgate’s men have not been good enough, and yet somehow have been exactly good enough to leave them standing on the cusp of a monumental opportunity. On paper, a final is possible. Football, however, is not played on paper, and if they are to progress into the glittering guts of the tournament, they know that they will have to show marked improvement against the Swiss.
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Hide AdThe hope will be that their storybook resuscitation against Slovakia provides the spark that they have been so sorely lacking in Germany, but the reality is that meaningful tactical and/or personnel changes will also have to accompany a sudden reversal in morale. If the Three Lions can bring it all together, like we all know they can, then Euro 2024 glory, somewhat inexplicably is still within their reach. After all, this is anybody’s to win.
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