Why England should be concerned about Euro 2024 round of 16 opponents - even if they win their group
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It is around this time every couple of years, after the customary underwhelming group stage draw, that we begin to wade through a slew of discourse asking whether or not it might, in fact, be more advantageous if England purposefully fluff their lines and qualify for the knockout rounds in second place. I am not going to insult your intelligence with an article to that effect.
The reasons for this are manifold. Firstly, the collective head loss that would ensue should the Three Lions do anything but beat Slovenia on Tuesday evening would put the French Revolution to shame. Hell, even a win of the wrong intensity may not be enough to quell the fume.
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Hide AdNext, there are few outcomes in which qualifying second, or even third, ends well for England. According to the all-knowing tournament tree, the runners-up in Group C will face hosts Germany in the last 16, while a mathematically satisfactory best of the rest finish could land Gareth Southgate’s men in the laps of an intimidatingly-suave Portugal. (It could also lead to a clash against any one of Romania, Belgium, Slovakia, or Ukraine too, but there are some eyes of needles not worth threading.)
The objective, then, is to win against Slovenia, and to win handsomely so as to reinvigorate a campaign that is already proving to be as divisive as it is lacklustre. But even in victory, the Three Lions could find themselves in a spot of bother come next weekend. You see, should England emerge atop their group, they will face a nation who settle for third elsewhere on Sunday evening. It could be any of the aforementioned Romania/Belgium/Slovakia/Ukraine quagmire. It could be Turkey or Czech Republic or plucky old Georgia. It could even be the Netherlands. But the common consensus and the weight of expectation seem to suggest that it is most likely to be Austria. And that is a concern, of sorts.
Managed by Ralf Rangnick, the meme-ified interim of Manchester United stagnation past, the Austrians have proven themselves to be a very handy, very energetic proposition in recent times. Prior to Euro 2024, they were unbeaten since October of last year, and during that streak put six past Turkey while also bloodying the nose of a newly rejuvenated German side. Over the course of the group stage so far, they caused France a fair few headaches before seeing off a resolute Poland to take themselves to the brink of qualification. Next up, the Netherlands, about three hours before England kick off against Slovenia on Tuesday.
Ordinarily, Southgate’s squad would be much-fancied against a side who sit a full 20 places beneath them in the FIFA World Rankings, and to most they still will be. But Austria pose a threat to which the Three Lions look ill-equipped to handle at present; a relentless, inexhaustible high press.
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Hide AdAgainst Denmark last Thursday, England struggled to build out from the back - misplacing passes, panicking somewhat in possession, and ultimately resorting to lumping long balls into nothingness just to relieve repeated phases of mounting pressure as they found themselves boxed in time after time.
The hope will be that a change in midfield personnel and a more willing and viable outlet on the left flank will go some way towards easing those worries from this point onwards, but nothing is certain, and last week’s brand of ultra-deep, excessively-ruffled performance is exactly the kind of flighty prey that Austria have thrived on so abundantly under Rangnick.
Southgate, of course, will know this and plan accordingly, but in the immortal words of Mike Tyson, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. Should they both make it through as anticipated, and should they meet on Sunday, Austria will come at England with intent, hard and fast and bruising. For the Three Lions, overwrought and edgy as they looked against the Danes, that could be cause for alarm. Unless, of course, they can exorcise some narrative demons against Slovenia...
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