Arsenal failed to sign me on a free transfer - but now I could join Nottingham Forest instead

Just two years ago, Arsenal had a rare opportunity – to sign a highly-rated up-and-coming defender with a proven track record of winning trophies for free. Eintracht Frankfurt’s Evan Ndicka, a Europa League champion, was running his contract down and Arsenal were firmly in the hunt. It was a chance that they blew, and now a decision which already looks like a mistake could like a little worse.

Partly, that’s because fresh reports now suggest that Arsenal are prepared to pay around €40m (£33.4m) for a player they could have had for nothing not so very long ago – and partly, that’s because they could lose out again, with reported competition from Nottingham Forest for a player who has had a strong career with AS Roma since heading to Serie A instead of the Emirates.

Why Evan Ndicka has proven Arsenal wrong

In November 2022, at least one report from The Daily Mirror went as far as to suggest that Arsenal and Ndicka had already agreed to pre-contract terms on a free transfer to North London, over a month before they would have been allowed to discuss a deal – but whatever the true shape of negotiations, it was widely expected that Arsenal would be in for the French-Ivorian centre-back.

Either they weren’t as keen as had seemed to be the case, or Roma simply made a stronger case, but the Italian capital ended up as Ndicka’s destination, and he’s only built on his reputation in the Eternal City.

There has been some drama along the way – a game against Udinese in 2024 was abandoned after Ndicka collapsed while experiencing chest pain, from which he happily recovered – but the overall trajectory of Ndicka’s career in Rome has been upwards.

Roma do not want to sell one of their most consistently impressive players, but if Premier League sides are serious interested then their monetary might could speak volumes. On top of that, there is a chance that Roma fail to qualify for Europe – at the time of writing, they sit sixth in Serie A – and missing out on that windfall might necessitate a sale or two to balance the books. Ndicka is among their most saleable assets.

There is some irony that, just as Roma mull over the profitable sale of a player they signed for free, Arsenal find themselves in the midst of a miniature defensive injury crisis, with Gabriel Magalhães out for the season just as Jurriën Timber and Ben White work to come back from issues of their own. Ndicka, that scare in 2024 aside, is noted for his boundless fitness – he has played every minute of every Serie A match so far this season.

In short, Arsenal may have made an error in passing on Ndicka two years ago, and it could be a rather expensive error if they do indeed make a bid for him – but it might feel even costlier still if they try a second time, only to lose out to an immediate rival.

Will Nottingham Forest sign Ndicka from under Arsenal’s nose?

Recent reports don’t just suggest that Arsenal are weighing up a move for the 25-year-old Ndicka – Nottingham Forest are credited with interest in a number of stories, too. Other sides, including Newcastle, Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth, have cropped up in a smattering of reports, but Arsenal and Forest are the teams that are being mentioned most consistently.

A year or so ago, the notion that Forest could compete for a big-ticket signing with Arsenal might have seemed far-fetched, but Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are on the cusp of a Champions League place and if they want to add some strength or depth to their defence, then they can make a strong case, just as Roma did two years ago.

Meanwhile, not every player would be content to gamble on being a back-up at Arsenal. The pairing of Gabriel and William Saliba seems rock solid, and there is already plenty of competition for places when they’re available. Arsenal are an appealing club to sign for in many ways, but a centre-half who wouldn’t be a nailed-on starter might need a little more convincing.

If Forest – or indeed Newcastle, or one of a few other sides – were to move for Ndicka, then Arsenal could be forced to watch a player that perhaps should have been theirs for free strengthening a team who may rival them for a top four place or compete with them for silverware both in England and overseas.

Ndicka is a player with impressive technical ability, who uses possession well, has excellent judgement in one-on-one situations and who, at 6’3”, has an impressive physical presence to go with his more refined qualities. He seems like a solid fit for Nuno Espirito Santo’s aggressive but economical style and has quite a bit in common with Murillo. It’s not a huge stretch to imagine club and player having mutual appeal for one another, at least so long as Forest finish the job and make it to European football’s top table.

Arsenal don’t make too many bad mistakes in the transfer window, but when they do it tends to be an error of omission rather than because they signed a bad player. Just as it’s become clear that they needed to sign a striker last summer, it seems as though bringing Ndicka in without a transfer fee would have been the right move. Now, it’s up to them to determine whether to take a deep breath and stump up some money they didn’t need to – or whether to let him make a direct rival a little better.