Why Aston Villa need to re-sign a £42m former favourite – or start Jhon Durán

Are Aston Villa quite as good as they were last season? It’s not a straightforward question to answer. Take the midweek defeat to Monaco, for instance – it wasn’t that Villa were bad, per se, but there was a lack of cut and thrust in the final third that let them down. They had possession, but lacked penetration. They had chances, but the xG column claims they weren’t that great. Something is missing from this side.

There are two ways to read Aston Villa’s progress at the halfway point of the current Premier League campaign, neither of which feels like a fully satisfactorily summation of how Unai Emery’s side are doing since qualifying for the Champions League for the first time.

On the one hand, this a team that has made a decent fist of its difficult second album. They’ve proven their top four finish was no fluke, kept themselves in the equation this time around and enjoyed some stirring nights of European football. They did beat Bayern Munich, after all.

But on the flip side, they feel like a slightly diminished force in the top flight. A certain sparkle is missing. They score 25% less often than they did last season, get the ball into the box less often, and create fewer chances, less frequently. There’s no lack of firepower up front, but there’s a little less inspiration in behind. Somewhere between the end of last season and now, Villa have lost something that they need, and if they want to make it back to Europe’s top table, they need to get it back. Fortunately, that may not be too tricky.

£42m gained but far too much lost

Pinning Villa’s (relative) downturn one any one decision, less still one player, would be harsh, but the stats and eye test are starting to point the finger in one particular direction – the sale of Douglas Luiz to Juventus.

The Brazilian had been a talismanic figure last season before his move for a reported €50m (£42m), and while there was a sense that he wanted to move on and try his luck with a member of European football’s traditional elite, and although Villa made a very tidy profit from the trade, it hasn’t worked out particularly well for any of the parties involved.

Luiz has looked like a shadow of his former self in Turin and hasn’t been able to hold down a regular starting spot. He scored nine and assisted a further 10 in 2023/24 for Villa, but for Juve his goal contribution columns on the stats sheets are filled with big fat zeroes. Juventus want him gone as a result, and there are tentative reports linking him with Premier League teams including Manchester City, Chelsea… and Aston Villa. There is some chance that Luiz comes home.

It isn’t clear whether it’s all that likely in reality. At the time of writing, no credible source claims that Villa have made an approach, but sporting director Monchi has openly said that he would look into it if the opportunity presented itself. Given how things are going for the player right now, the only reason that the opportunity isn’t there is if Luiz himself doesn’t want to go back over old ground.

His thrust through the midfield is what’s been missing. Morgan Rogers has filled the role played by Moussa Diaby last season very well and is only likely to get better, but it’s the ability to get the ball into the box from deeper areas that they’ve lacked – and it’s something that’s sorely missed when your main striker is Watkins, who excels off the shoulder of the last man and demands direct, dangerous passes coming his way more often, or more players who can run the ball from deep to draw defenders and create space.

From last season to this, the number of passes Villa have played into the box has dropped by a quarter, while the more defensive midfielders on the books simply lack the skill to create opportunities. Amadou Onana is a fine holding midfielder, but attempts half as many direct forward passes as Luiz did, and certainly doesn’t carry the ball half as well. Boubacar Kamara gets the ball forward more often, but doesn’t do so as accurately and creates half as many shooting chances as Luiz. Without the Brazilian, they have become just a little one dimensional. Not a bad side, still, but one lacking a certain spark.

Why Durán could fill the void

Of course, they may not be able to sign Luiz if a club like City comes in for him, or if Juventus simply decide to give him more time to settle in to life with the Old Lady. Emery may need to look elsewhere, and all-action midfielders who offer so much in all three thirds of the pitch are a rare commodity. He may have to work with what he’s got.

Emery could consider restoring Jhon Durán to the starting line-up – not instead of Watkins, but alongside him. Durán may not resemble Luiz in many ways, but he is comfortable operating in deeper areas and could fulfil a role similar to that which Diaby did in the first half of last season, when he played as a number ten alongside Watkins, combining with the midfielder as required or drawing runners with him, generating space, and scoring a few himself when Villa were in possession and surging forward.

Rogers does something similar but is really the kind of player who gets drawn to the ball, rather than a player whose off-ball movement creates room for others. The former Middlesbrough man could, perhaps, be a more attacking version of Luiz, carrying the ball from deep while two athletic and incisive strikers ahead of him attacking the half-spaces and give defenders conniptions.

Durán, it’s true, lacks Luiz or Diaby’s passing range and creative flair, and expecting him to provide for Watkins directly is perhaps ambitious, but what Watkins needs more than anything is space, and someone to draw defenders away from him. Using him as a second focal point of the attack who can also contribute out of possession (Durán is highly effective when pressing and recovering the ball) could work.

All that Villa need is more than one player who can create either the space or the chances Watkins needs. Rogers is a fine young player but too much is asked of him right now, and he isn’t being given support in the shape of willing runners coming from behind him. Diaby had Luiz to help out. Rogers has Youri Tielemans, sometimes, and he’s a less direct sort of player who passes well but doesn’t carve open space in the same way. Maybe new signing Donyell Malen will help in that regard, but there are no guarantees given his form at Borussia Dortmund.

A diamond formation, with Rogers or Tielemans as the ten, could be worth a stab. Even if the fluidity is lacking or the players struggle to adapt, you have two first-rate finishers up front to make the most of the chances that do come their way. It remains a minor crime that Emery hasn’t found a way to put both Watkins and Durán in the same starting eleven. Villa have two of the best finishers in the top flight on the same time, and if you’re going to go around turning down £57m offers for one of them, you had better expect to play them.

Maybe that works, and maybe it doesn’t. Perhaps Luiz would be willing to come back, or perhaps his future lies elsewhere. But Villa need to find a way to create more chances, give Watkins and Durán the service they deserve and score the goals that they aren’t scoring any more. Right now, they’re a good team, but one that remains a few adjustments away from the level of the team that made the Champions League last season for the first time in four decades. This is a side that needs its spark back.