Keep the faith - How Newcastle United can still beat Liverpool and win cup final without Isak, Gordon and Hall

This wasn’t the best weekend to be a Geordie. Not only did Newcastle United lose a tense FA Cup fifth round tie against Brighton & Hove Albion in extra time, but the defeat came at an extra cost – Anthony Gordon is now suspended for the EFL Cup final against Liverpool in a fortnight’s time, Alexander Isak was forced off with an apparent injury, and Lewis Hall didn’t even make the squad thanks to a fitness issue of his own.

The result of all those frustrations is a distinctly deflated mood on Tyneside. Defeating Liverpool at Wembley was never going to be easy, but if three key starters are absent then a first major domestic trophy in 70 years could begin to look further away than ever. As one supporter of my acquaintance who has tickets for the match put it, “feels like there’s nay point gan noo.”

But while the potential absences of Gordon, Isak and Hall are all significant blows, that doesn’t mean that Newcastle are dead in the water – does it? This is how all three absences will affect the team on the day, and how the losses can be ameliorated or even overcome.

Anthony Gordon

The one player who will almost definitely miss out on the trip to Wembley – Eddie Howe told the media that on Sunday that the club may appeal Gordon’s red card, but on the face of it such a move seems unlikely to succeed. Gordon lost his temper at the most inopportune moment, lashing out at Brighton defender Jan Paul van Hecke and pushing him in the face, receiving a straight red for violent conduct. It may not have been the most lethal assault seen on a football pitch, but there is little precedent for the decision to be overturned, and it’s hard to argue that Anthony Taylor’s decision wasn’t merited.

Assuming Gordon is serving the three-match ban that comes with a dismissal for violent conduct, Newcastle will go into the EFL Cup final without their second-top scorer and the player who seems best positioned to hit Liverpool’s soft spot – the aggressive playing style of Trent Alexander-Arnold means that Arne Slot’s side often leave space in behind down that flank, a hole that can be exploited on the counter-attack.

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Harvey Barnes, who managed an hour of action against Brighton - the most minutes he’s played in a game since December either side of a thigh injury – will presumably deputise. The question is whether Newcastle will get the Barnes that started the season or the Barnes who has struggled for form and fitness since.

Barnes has only managed the full 90 minutes twice this season, and if he isn’t ready for a full match then Howe will have a significant issue, with Joe Willock perhaps called upon as an emergency winger for at least some portion of the match once more. Barnes has also failed to score or assist a goal for three months. The omens aren’t great.

But a fit and firing Barnes remains a threatening player. He still has five goals in the Premier League this season, scored at a pro rata rate of better than a goal every other game – which is twice as fast as Gordon has managed to get his six goals on a minute-for-minute basis. The issue isn’t whether Barnes can threaten Liverpool’s goal, but whether he can find anything resembling his best form after another injury-interrupted campaign. If he comes through training and the forthcoming league game against West Ham next Monday without issues, Gordon’s loss may not be felt too keenly.

Lewis Hall

Newcastle lost 2-0 to Liverpool last week, a match which outlined the challenge facing them on 16 March – and which also cost them the services of Hall against Brighton, with the club awaiting a specialist’s verdict on the severity of the young left-back’s ankle injury.

It isn’t yet known whether or not Hall might miss the EFL Cup final, but if that’s the case then he will almost certainly be replaced by Valentino Livramento, who started on the left against Brighton with Kieran Trippier down the right.

That may be less of a downgrade than some supporters fear. Hall is outstanding going forward and would certainly help offer more penetration down the left flank, especially given that Livramento is naturally right-footed, but Hall is also vulnerable to quick wingers running at him and has been dribbled past twice as often as Livramento this season. When Liverpool’s main threat is Mohamed Salah, having a full-back who commits fewer positional errors and handled ball carriers better may be a blessing in disguise.

The potential return of Sven Botman, who has the ability to keep pace with Liverpool’s front line more easily than Dan Burn, will also help to keep Salah and his supporting cast at bay. There’s no question that Hall is better at both crossing and finding direct passes down the wing than Livramento, who didn’t even attempt a cross against Brighton (although he did win the first-half penalty by getting into the box in support of the attack).

Losing Hall would dampen Newcastle’s attacking threat down the left flank, but may actually result in a slightly tougher defence – Liverpool scored five goals against Newcastle in the their league meetings with Hall playing left-back, and he wasn’t able to get forward very often (or at least to great effect) in either game anyway. The return of Botman may be more important than the potential loss of Hall.

Alexander Isak

The good news is that Isak should be fine for Wembley, if Howe’s comments after the game are anything to go by – the Swede felt some “tightness” and was taken off with four minutes of normal time remaining as a result, but it isn’t believed that he has suffered a recurrence of a recent groin injury. If he does end up missing time, however, there is little way to sugarcoat the potential impact.

Losing Isak would mean that the onus to score goals would fall to Callum Wilson first and foremost, and the former Bournemouth striker has struggled so much with injuries this season that getting any read on his capacity to lead the line is challenging. Wilson has managed just 151 minutes of football so far in the Premier League this season, and managed just three attempts on goal in that time, none of which were on target.

In the 3-3 draw at St. James’ Park earlier this season, during which Isak scored, Newcastle proved that it is possible to create chances against England’s best team, but that was with Liverpool missing Ibrahima Konaté and with Alexander-Arnold limited to less than half an hour of playing time. Against their full-strength defence at Anfield, Newcastle created just 0.23xG’s worth of chances without hitting the back of the net.

That suggests that Newcastle simply have to take the chances that do come, and Isak is head and shoulders above his team-mates in that regard – Wilson has been a solid finisher in his time, but may well be too rusty to play to his very best, although Danny Welbeck, who scored the winner on Sunday, at least offered a template for a striker who shrugs off persistent injuries to keep performing and scoring.

Expecting Wilson to hit those heights so soon after returning from what seemed like an unceasing string of knocks and strains is perhaps unrealistic, however. Newcastle will need Isak fit and ready to play. Hopefully, Howe will be proven right that his enforced substitution against Brighton wasn’t the start of anything significant. If it is, the Magpies have a big problem ahead of what could be their biggest match of the season.