Two truths and one big lie for Newcastle United's January transfer window

Plenty of Premier League teams are liable to be rather quiet this January, but Newcastle United aren’t one of them. Where most clubs spent their entire transfer budgets in the summer, Newcastle ended up keeping their financial powder dry thanks to the failed pursuit of Marc Guéhi, and that means that they’re in a position to make some big moves in the transfer market.

Their fine recent form also means that qualifying for the Champions League for the second time in three years is a distinct possibility, and that may encourage the owners not to save that spare cash for next season – so it’s no surprise that the rumour mill is filled with stories linking Newcastle with a host of players from around the Premier League and further afield.

But what do the Magpies really need this winter to make the top four? We decided to respond to the rumours by picking out two truths and a lie as Eddie Howe tries to shape his squad for the home stretch.

Truth: Newcastle don’t need another defender

Newcastle were allegedly set to spend up to £70m on Guéhi before Crystal Palace pulled the rug out from under them at the very end of the summer transfer window, and it was clear that Howe thought that a central defender should be top of the shopping list – but that seems to have changed.

Hardly any of the stories coming off the rumour mill suggest that Newcastle are looking to sign a new centre-back and it seems as though their attention has been turned elsewhere, and there’s a very good reason for that, and a very good reason that Newcastle’s defence has held their opponents to five clean sheets in their last seven matches.

With Sven Botman back in the team after a serious injury, Fabian Schär as reliable as ever and Dan Burn rejuvenated now that he’s been released from the shackles of a left-back role that he was sorely unsuited to, they barely even need Lloyd Kelly as cover, less still a big-money January signing. Their defence is playing well and a big signing would constitute and attempt to fix that which isn’t broken. The age of Schär and Burn may necessitate a signing in the summer but for now, a January move would likely be a mistake.

Truth: Newcastle need a new right winger

The club did their level best to sell Miguel Almirón over the summer and seem set to try and find a taker once more, with the Paraguayan no longer seen as essential to the squad - and it’s been widely reported that the club want to sign Brentford star Bryan Mbeumo to replace him, not that other big-name clubs aren’t in the market for the Cameroon international as well.

Some fans may, however, have been persuaded that Mbeumo isn’t such an essential signing thanks to the recent form of Jacob Murphy, who has bagged three goals and six assists in his last eight matches while playing some of the best football of his career.

The fact is that Murphy may struggle to maintain that form for the rest of the season, though. Prior to the last eight games, he hadn’t scored and had just one assist to his name, and he’s comfortably exceeding his expected production based off the xG he’s enjoyed himself and provided for others. His current form is impressive, but the stats suggest that it won’t last.

Furthermore, adding a player like Mbeumo, who is at the top of his game, scoring freely and a proven difference-maker all season long at the top level could add that extra bit of cutting edge that Newcastle do still need – while Howe’s attack is hardly stuttering, it’s worth noting that Brentford have four more league goals to their name. Whether Brentford can be persuaded to sell mid-season and whether or not Newcastle could outbid other clubs remains to be seen, but signing a player of that calibre would improve the side significantly. Right now, if they want to spend the money earmarked for Guéhi, they would be better off buying Mbeumo.

Lie: Newcastle need a new goalkeeper

Howe isn’t only after a winger, however – it seems as though Newcastle are very keen to add a goalkeeper to their ranks following another serious injury to Nick Pope, who has now missed half a dozen matches with a knee problem a year or so after he was sidelined for months with a shoulder issue.

That could be James Trafford, the talented young goalkeeper who was relegated with Burnley last summer, or it might be Arsenal loanee Aaron Ramsdale, who would surely be signed with the intent that he take over as first choice. But do Newcastle really need to spend a significant sum on a new stopper?

With Pope, there are question marks beyond his fitness. At 32, he’s not getting any younger and while he has adapted well enough to Howe’s high line and preference for a goalkeeper who can play the sweeper role, it’s not necessarily his comfort zone. But he’s still a high-class goalkeeper who is in the Premier League’s top ten this year for expected goals prevented, and even if a long-term replacement isn’t a bad idea, he should be back to full fitness this month and more than capable of making the saves required.

And while back-up goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka seems likely to leave this month with a move to Saudi Arabia reportedly on the cards, they still have an experienced deputy on the books in the shape of Odysseas Vladochimos, who didn’t set the world on fire at Nottingham Forest but is still good enough to be the Greek number one.

The question is whether they really need to spend a substantial sum on a goalkeeper like Ramsdale when there is a Champions League place on the line and a fully fit Pope is still more than good enough. Signing Trafford would make more sense if he was prepared to be a back-up for the rest of the season and fight for his place down the line, but given his status and the chance that Burnley achieve promotion back to the Premier League, that would be an idiosyncratic career move.

Newcastle are looking at starting goalkeepers who may not even be better than the player they have right now, at least in the immediate future. If Pope’s fitness continues to be a concern in the summer, then it’s reasonable to make a move, but this isn’t a deal that would move the needle in the push for a top four placing. Not in the right direction, anyway.