2022 FIFA World Cup chances rated: we predict when each of the 32 teams will be knocked out

The 2022 FIFA World Cup is now right around the corner, and it will be a World Cup like no other.

We have a winter World Cup on our hands this year, with FIFA shifting the tournament to late November to cater for the sizzling Qatar climate. There is no hiding that this World Cup is a controversial one, but it will go ahead nonetheless, and it is sure to be as engaging as ever.

The Qatar climate should make things interesting, and this already feels like an open World Cup, with Brazil, France and Argentina the favourites with most bookmakers. Here, we take a look at each team’s chances and at which stage each of the 32 teams competing are likely to bow out of the World Cup.

Take a look below, and let us know your likely winners in the comments section.

Qatar (Group A)

The host nation will want to put on a show, and they have snuck into the top 50 in the FIFA rankings ahead of the tournament. But they face a tough test to get out of their group, let alone win the competition. Don’t rule them out getting through, though, given they will be most comfortable in this climate.

Chances - 0/10

Predicted exit stage - Group Stage

Ecuador (Group A)

Ecuador were one of the last teams to qualify from South America. They’re a decent side, featuring the likes of Brighton star Pervis Estupinan. But they’re no world champions.

Chances - 1/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Senegal (Group A)

Sadio Mane and his men should fancy their chances of getting out of the group - they are African champions after all. But they are not likely to go further.

Chances - 2/10

Predicted exit stage - Round of 16

Netherlands (Group A)

Netherlands have a very talented squad, including the likes of Frenkie de Jong, Arnaut Danjuma, Memphis Depay, Virgil van Dijk, Cody Gakpo and the list goes on. They have a decent shot at this World Cup, and they should fancy their chances of a good run, given their relatively favourable group.

Chances - 6/10

Predicted exit stage - Quarter-finals

England (Group B)

A talented squad, but let’s face it, England just haven’t got the nerve to go all the way at the World Cup. Not only that, but they come into this tournement on the back of a winless Nations League campaign, and with pressure on Gareth Southgate. The Three Lions should have a decent run, but they don’t look like champion material, and they could well face France in the quarter-finals.

Chances - 5/10

Predicted exit stage - Quarter-finals

Iran (Group B)

Iran are a good side, now in the top 20 in the rankings, but they are not winning the World Cup, and it would be a miracle if they got out of this group.

Chances - 0/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

USA (Group B)

USA have a talented young squad, able to call upon the likes of Brenden Aaronson, Christian Pulisic, Sergino Dest, Weston McKennie and others. But they do lack experience, and they have shown a tendancy to slip up over the last couple of years. Their lack of experience could really cost them.

Chances - 2/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Wales (Group B)

Wales don’t have the most talented squad, but their team ethic and ability to go into a tournament relaxed and without pressure helps them to get the results they need. They’re not going to win the World Cup by any stretch, but they might just edge USA to reach the last 16.

Chances - 2/10

Predicted exit stage - Round of 16

Argentina (Group C)

Argentina are high in the odds to be World Cup champions, and rightly so. They are Copa Ámerica champions, and they have a hugely talented squad. Lionel Messi will be on a mission, and the likes of Lautaro Martinez and Lisandro Martinez are in fine form heading into the tournament. Their biggest obstacle? They could face Spain in the semi-finals.

Chances - 9/10

Predicted exit stage - Semi-finals

Saudi Arabia (Group C)

Saudi Arabia may well be a growing football nation, but they are going nowhere from this ultra-tricky group.

Chances - 0/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Mexico (Group C)

Mexico have some talent, with the likes of Raul Jimenez, Hirving Lozano and the likes. But this isn’t the most talented Mexico squad to come to a World Cup, and far from it. They would do well to get out of this group.

Chances - 1/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Poland (Group C)

Poland are likely to progress with Argentina, as long as they hold their nerve. If you have Robert Lewandowski, you have a chance, and there is talent beyond the Barcelona star, too.

Chances - 3/10

Predicted exit stage - Round of 16

France (Group D)

The current holders have a good chance, but only two nations have ever retained the World Cup - Brazil and Italy. Kylian Mbappe and co will give this a good go, but retaining the World Cup is such a rarity. Portugal in the semi-finals could be their biggest obstacle.

Chances - 7/10

Predicted exit stage - Semi-finals

Australia (Group D)

Australia showed great spirit to get to this World Cup, progressing through a tricky qualification system, but they will find it difficult to get out of their group in Qatar.

Chances - 1/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Denmark (Group D)

Denmark have a talented, physical side with plenty of technical ability. They should progress through this group, but can they go all the way? No.

Chances - 2/10

Predicted exit stage - Round of 16

Tunisia (Group D)

Tunisia are a decent footballing side, and they knocked out Nigeria in the most recent edition of AFCON, showing their ability to pull off a surprise result. They are outsiders to get second place here, and let’s not forget they were knocked out of AFCON by Burkina Faso.

Chances - 1/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Spain (Group E)

Spain are fifth favourites with many to win this tournament, but they should not be taken lightly. They have a top coach in Luis Enrique, who has focused on working with a refined group of players over recent years. He has immense young talent at his disposal here, with the likes of Pedri and Gavi, and plenty of experience to go with it. This is a group that has worked together closely, and one that should have reached the Euro 2020 final. They could go all the way. Brazil and Argentina could be their most difficult tests along the way, with the top (or left) bracket being the toughest.

Chances - 9/10

Predicted exit stage - Winners

Costa Rica (Group E)

Costa Rica are always good fun when they reach a World Cup, making the knockout stages in 2006. But they are not getting out of this group.

Chances - 0/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Germany (Group E)

Germany were a disaster at the last World Cup, and they weren’t much better in the Euros. They have sharpened up a little since then, and they should get through the group stage. If they finish second, they could face Belgium in the quarter-finals, which could suit them.

Chances - 4/10

Predicted exit stage - Quarter-finals

Japan (Group E)

Japan have a strong squad, able to call upon the likes of Takehiro Tomiyasu, Takefuso Kubo and others. Don’t completely rule out a surprise, but they have drawn the short straw with this group.

Chances - 2/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Belgium (Group F)

Belgium have been a talented group for years, and it’s about time they showed it on the highest level. Will they? Probably not. It’s now or never for their golden generation, that’s for sure.

Chances - 4/10

Predicted exit stage - Round of 16

Canada (Group F)

Canada have some talented players, and they could be the surprise package in this group, but they don’t have enough top-level players to make a real run.

Chances -0/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Morocco (Group F)

Hakim Ziyech and co will want to make a splash, but it’s unlikely they will manage it. This group may be a little more open than most if the Europeans can’t hold their nerve, but Morocco must still be classed as unlikely to progress.

Chances - 0/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Croatia (Group F)

Croatia have made their presence known in recent years, reaching the 2018 World Cup final, but they couldn’t get past Spain at Euro 2020. Luka Modric still has magic in those boots, but he is getting older, and Croatia may not have enough talent to get beyond the first knockout round.

Chances - 4/10

Predicted exit stage - Round of 16

Brazil (Group G)

The competition favourites. Brazil have a mightily talented squad, and we don’t need to list through their seemingly endless resources. This climate shout suit them, too. But Brazil have underperformed at World Cups for years, be it the pressure or otherwise. We need to see it to believe it, and they could face Spain as early as the quarters.

Chances - 7/10

Predicted exit stage - Quarter-finals

Serbia (Group G)

Who wants to write off a team with Aleksandr Mitrovic? Well, as far as winning the World Cup, we can, but Serbia could make some noise in this group.

Chances - 3/10

Predicted exit stage - Round of 16

Switzerland (Group G)

Switzerland have a solid core with the likes of Granit Xhaka and Manuel Akanji, but they may well struggle to get out of this group.

Chances - 2/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Cameroon (Group G)

Cameroon are so often good fun at the World Cup, and they may well be the biggest threat to Serbia to get out of this group in second place. The climate does favour them, but Serbia are getting the edge on paper due to the form of their star striker heading into this tournament.

Chances - 2/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Portugal (Group H)

Yes, that’s right. We’re going for an all-European, all-Iberian final. Portugal have an ultra-talented squad with a nice mix of experienced internationals and youngsters with flair and huge talent. They have experience of winning in recent years, winning Euro 2016, and they have a manager who puts results before performance in Fernando Santos. Portugal could be a huge threat. Also, Cristiano Ronaldo.

Chances - 9/10

Predicted exit stage - Final

Ghana (Group H)

Ghana were the life and soul of the 2010 World Cup, but lots have changed. They are relying on the Brothers Ayew (good name for a band) these days, and they face a big task to get out of this group.

Chances - 1/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage

Uruguay (Group H)

Uruguay are hoping to make some noise in this group, blessed with experienced strikers Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, while younger players like Darwin Nunez, Ronald Araujo and Lucas Torreira round out their squad nicely. It won’t be easy for them to get out of this group, but they should reach the Round of 16.

Chances - 3/10

Predicted exit stage - Round of 16

South Korea (Group H)

South Korea may well be Uruguay’s biggest threat to progressing from Group H. Son Heung-min, Kim Min-jae, Hwang Hee-chan and many others make this a talented squad. They are one to keep an eye out for in the group stages, but they are not going to win the World Cup.

Chances - 2/10

Predicted exit stage - Group stage