Focused pressing and positioning of key Ipswich player - how ROI's new manager can upset England

If you’re hoping to spring an upset against England, turning to someone who’s done it before seems like a good place to start. That specific experience wasn’t the reason that the Republic of Ireland hired Heimir Hallgrímsson to be their new men’s head coach, but being of the masterminds of Iceland’s famous 2-1 victory over the Three Lions at Euro 2016 didn’t do his credentials any harm.

The 57-year-old, who will join opposite number Lee Carsley in managing his international charges for the first time in Dublin on Saturday, was a surprise appointment when he was chosen to succeed Stephen Kenny – but with seven years of national management under his belt, he certainly knows his way around the role. But what can Irish fans expect from the new man in charge, and can he repeat the trick that ended Roy Hodgson’s tenure as England manager in such humiliating fashion eight years ago? And what will England be up against at the Aviva Stadium?

Hallgrímsson was sanguine when asked about whether he could produce a second coming of that famous (or infamous, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you’re from) night in Nice.

“That night was special,” he told reporters. “Everything we did that night succeeded, whether it was tactical, taking our chances, defending our goal, and nothing England tried that night succeeded, so it was just one of those days.

“Hopefully it will come again tomorrow. But we know, even if we have our best game, it still isn’t sure it will lead into a victory against a good team like England… It’s a totally different team. The individual quality, the technical skills, the speed, of this team is much higher than the one we played.”

A careful management of expectations, then, as might be expected from the pragmatic former dentist who spent five years in joint and then sole charge of his home country before spending two years with Jamaica, where he has been succeeded by Steve McClaren. And certainly, man for man, Ireland would have to pull something remarkable out of the hat to beat a strong England squad, even one missing players like Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden.

The key, for Hallgrímsson, is likely to be pressure out of possession. Much of Iceland’s ability to punch well above their weight during his tenure was down to a fierce and persistent pressing system which looked to force turnovers and prevent time on the ball. That kind of ideology is common enough at club level, but less so in the international game where many coaches feel that an organised and efficient press is difficult to set up when players and staff get so little time to work together.

That philosophy may well inform his choices of personnel for Saturday’s game. His first squad didn’t stray far from the player base employed by Kenny or by John O’Shea, who took caretaker charge for this year’s friendlies, but it would not be surprising to see him prioritise minutes for faster players with the stamina to close the opposition down consistently over the course of 90 minutes.

Hallgrímsson isn’t dogmatic in terms of shape and while he has typically played with a back four in his previous roles, the make-up of the squad with just five recognised central midfielders implies that he may well stick the 3-4-3 formation used by his predecessors which emphasised the wing-backs. But it would be unsurprising if the front three was a little narrower, as the Icelander has favoured front twos playing off each other in the past – a better set-up with which to exploit direct passes, which he encourages. Set plays will also be a key part of his arsenal going forward, and the successful Iceland teams he managed tended to be strong in dead-ball situations. We may, for instance, see Sammie Szmodics line up centrally and in behind two striker where he’s at his best, rather than stuck out wide of a traditional number nine.

If England push up too hard and leave the central defence exposed and without an effective midfielder screen, or if Ireland can pinch possession in the areas typically patrolled by Declan Rice, then they may well be able to create two-on-one and three-on-two situations through the middle with that sort of formation, and it would be typical of Hallgrímsson’s style if that was the focus of the attack.

But Hallgrímsson is a flexible manager used to taking charge of countries who aren’t necessarily stacked deep with quality across the pitch, and if he sees a better way forward with the players available he will likely take it. He has been keen, however, to emphasise in pre-match interviews that he has little time with his squad – the implication, apart from setting expectations as to the result, may well be that what we see against England will just be a first draft, not a rigid plan for the future.

England should win on Saturday. They most likely will. But Carsley likes to take a dynamic and attacking approach with his midfield and hasn’t prioritised press resistance during his tenure with the Under-21s – and England proved vulnerable to an aggressive pressing unit in the Euro 2024 final against Spain. That’s the potentially weak underbelly that Hallgrímsson and his team will have to scratch at to create chances from open play.

They will do very well to keep England at bay, however, despite a strong defensive unit with four Premier League centre-backs at Hallgrímsson’s disposal. But he will try to keep them compact and tight and hope that England haven’t quite become as expansive as they often weren’t under Gareth Southgate. There is a path to an Irish victory. It’s just one that Hallgrímsson doesn’t want to promise he will be able to walk down.