The £30m Marcus Rashford alternative Aston Villa could chase this summer - but there's a catch

Marcus Rashford’s season seems to be over thanks to a hamstring injury, but he’ll still be in the headlines on a regular basis over the next couple of months – because he may have a huge decision to make concerning his future, and the choice he takes will change the course that Aston Villa have to take through the summer transfer window.

The loan deal that took the Manchester United forward to Villa Park during the January transfer window includes a £40m purchase option, but it neither prevents other teams from making a bid nor stops Rashford from negotiating with them, and with recent stories suggesting the chance of bids from sides like Inter Milan and PSG, a move overseas may well be on the table.

Should Rashford choose to pursue a career outside of the Premier League – a decision which would be understandable, given the way he has been hounded by some of the more venomous sections of the British press – then Villa will be left in a bind, one complicated by growing speculation about the future of Ollie Watkins. At least one player has been earmarked as a potential answer by the gossip columns, however…

Why a striker may not be the priority if Aston Villa don’t sign Marcus Rashford

If Rashford doesn’t opt to extend his productive stay in the midlands, then much will depend on what happens with Watkins. While selling him may seem unthinkable – Villa certainly laughed Arsenal out of the room swiftly enough when they made an optimistic bid back in January – rumours surrounding the chance of bids from ‘bigger’ teams have intensified of late and if Villa don’t secure Champions League football, then this may be their last chance to cash in on a player who is already 29 years old.

It remains very likely that Watkins, who has three years left on his current contract, stays put, and perhaps the stories linking him with Arsenal or Liverpool lately have more to do with an exaggeration of claims that he’s frustrated with his playing time, or are simply an example of bored gossip columnists throwing his name into the mix ahead of a window in which strikers will take centre stage.

If he does leave, then Villa will need to spend big on a striker, with Porto’s impressive Samu Agehowa routinely mentioned in dispatches. If Watkins does remain at Villa Park, however, they need something slightly different. Rashford was the ideal loan signing in many ways. Although most often played on the left wing, as has been the case for both club and country for some time, he has covered well for Watkins down the middle on several occasions, and that positional flexibility proved to be vital following the loss of Jhon Durán.

But what they really need, if Watkins stays, isn’t a striker – although a back-up would be a requirement – but a left winger. Take Rashford out of the equation, and it becomes one of the club’s weaker positions. Based on recent rumours, then, it becomes worthwhile to ask whether Marseille’s Luis Henrique might be the answer.

Luis Henrique wound be a fine signing for Aston Villa – but no Rashford

Villa are one of a few sides linked with a bid for the 23-year-old Brazilian, who has scored nine goals and assisted eight more over the course of the season with Roberto de Zerbi’s side. Newcastle and Nottingham Forest are allegedly interested, too, but he fills a much clearer need at Villa Park.

A left winger who has also been employed as a right wing-back on occasion, there’s plenty to like about Henrique. He combines excellent technique and the skill to beat defenders one-on-one (which the stats suggest that he does more often and more efficiently than Rashford) with a broader passing range and good pace and movement. He has a well-rounded skill set that suits playing as an inside forward in the Rashford mould.

And while he has not been used as a central striker, his underlying finishing stats for the season aren’t too bad at all – in Ligue 1, he has managed seven goals in 32 games from 4.2xG. If you were trying to replace Watkins, that wouldn’t cut it, but if you’re trying to upgrade down the left wing, the output is there to be a major contributor in the final third.

Henrique doesn’t try to get into the box too often, preferring to seek out space down the wing and play provider, but if his 2024/25 is a fair reflection of how productive he can be going forward, then he would both create and score often enough to make a big difference. Of course, Rashford offers a much higher ceiling in terms of goal-scoring – he has twice scored 17 in a Premier League campaign, after all – and perhaps a higher ceiling in terms of creating chances, too.

While the 3.69 shooting chances per game that Henrique has played a part in creating over the course of the season is almost identical to Rashford’s mark for the year (3.67), that’s including his poor form at United – since rejuvenating himself at Aston Villa, Rashford’s stats have shot up and he has generated an average of 5.49 shooting chances per game since the move.

The short version of the story told by the stats is that Henrique could be a very fine winger in the Premier League who produces good numbers both as creator and finisher – but Rashford, on song and playing his best football, is a cut above on both counts.

Digging through the stats across Europe’s Big Five leagues, very few forwards have been playing at the level Rashford has since his loan move. To put that volume of shooting chances created in context, only five players have managed a higher average over the course of the entire Premier League season: Kevin de Bruyne, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Bruno Fernandes and Savinho. Rashford, on this form, is up there with the very best.

Throw in that extra, lethal burst of pace and the experience of playing in the Premier League, and there’s no real question as to which player you’d rather your club signed. But Villa may not get a say in the matter.

A simple fact is that Villa are highly unlikely to find a player as good as Rashford at a similar price point. It’s been suggested in the Italian press – Inter are allegedly keeping tabs, too, when they aren’t busy pursuing Rashford and preparing to launch the worst kit in Serie A history – that Henrique would cost around £30m. That’s a fair price for a good player, but starts to look expensive next to a £40m fee for Rashford.

If Villa don’t land Rashford, they will either have to settle for second best or spend more, and their capacity to do that may depend heavily on whether they qualify for the Champions League. As long as Henrique’s name is cropping up in the gossip columns, at least, they will have a good player in their sights. Unfortunately, they may only end up signing him - or have any need to - if an even better one leaves.