The lethal £25m winger who could reignite Aston Villa’s attack

The transfer window has, predictably, started rather quietly, but Aston Villa are among the Premier League teams who are expected to make at least something of a splash over the course of January as they look to reinvigorate their challenge for a Champions League place following a period of patchy form – so it’s no great surprise to see their name crop up in a new transfer story from Germany.

According to Bild, the Villans have taken an interest in Borussia Dortmund winger Donyell Malen, a Dutch winger who was among the most dangerous wide players in the Bundesliga last season but whose own inconsistency has seen him become rather less essential to head coach Nuri Sahin’s plans.

According to Bild, a bid in the region of €25-30m (£20-25m) would “definitely” be enough to persuade Dortmund to part ways with a player who scored 15 goals in all competitions last season. Since the summer, Malen, who turns 26 this month, has struggled to hit his best form with regularity, scoring just five times in the first half of the season and struggling to make his usual impact in big games. With his contract running down next summer, this may be Dortmund’s last chance to make serious money on him in the transfer market, and that seems to have tipped the balance towards selling.

Would Malen improve Aston Villa?

Malen may have been short of his best form this season and been largely relegated to the bench as a result, but he has still proven himself to be a very high level performer and he was routinely linked with a move to Manchester United or Liverpool over the course of the summer transfer window after providing more than 15 goal contributions in both of the last two seasons. If he could recapture some of his prior spark, he could surely improve Aston Villa.

Able to play on either flank but naturally right-footed and more accustomed to playing down that side, Malen would likely be signed to compete with Leon Bailey for his spot, another player who has struggled to recreate last season’s goalscoring form.

The table above compares some of Malen’s key statistical output with Unai Emery’s current options down both flanks, using data from the last year (save for the stats measuring their take-on success rate, which is from last season). As is quickly apparent, Malen represents a much stronger goalscoring threat than Villa’s current options on the wings, even with a comparatively weak six months of football included in the numbers.

Players like Bailey, John McGinn and Morgan Rogers are stronger creatively and are mostly better dribblers who can do more damage in deeper areas and generate more shooting chances for their team-mates, but Malen gets the ball in the back of the net more efficiently and more regularly.

Partly, that’s because Malen frequently looks to play off the shoulder of the last man, even in wide areas, and doesn’t come deep to get possession as often as his potential rivals for a place in the Villa team. That means he gets in more goalscoring positions, but could mean that he isn’t a straightforward fit with Emery’s tactical scheme.

That’s especially true with Ollie Watkins up front, another striker who looks to push upfield and play off the last man. Having two players operating in that area would give Villa plenty of threat but leave them short-handed in the build-up. Jhon Durán, who is more comfortable operating in deeper areas in front of the centre-halves, may have a playing style that complements Malen more readily.

But while there are some tactical considerations in play, there’s ultimately little doubt that if Emery wants more goals, Malen would be a good option at a relatively reasonable price – so long as he can get back to his best, at least.

Will Aston Villa sign Malen?

Of course, just because Villa are rumoured to be in the market for Malen doesn’t mean that it’s true. Bild have a better reputation than most tabloids when it comes to the accuracy of their stories but there is always the possibility that two and two is being put together to make five.

But a bigger barrier may be the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules. While exact numbers are hard to come by, Transfermarkt estimate that Villa have had a net spend of around £130m over the course of the past three seasons – teams can make a maximum loss of £105m over that period to stay within the bounds of the rules. Amortisation (the process by which teams spread the cost of transfers over future seasons) means that Villa likely have some room to manoeuvre but an expenditure of up to £25m may stretch the limits of the club’s budget.

It’s likely that Villa could make the numbers work, but they may not have the funds to sign Malen and spend much more money elsewhere – if Emery and his transfer team have other priorities, the chance to sign Malen may be passed over.

This remains a plausible report, however, and one that makes a certain amount of sense for both Borussia Dortmund and Aston Villa, who have been less dangerous in front of goal this season compared to last year, when they made the top four.

In that campaign, Villa averaged 1.95 goals per game in the Premier League but with Watkins a little less inspired this time around, they have registered just 1.47 goals per match so far. Malen could easily push that number back in the right direction while helping the team to reduce their reliance on Watkins. £20-25m may well be a price worth paying.