Why Spurs & Arsenal transfer decisions have left Ivan Toney and Brentford in a difficult position

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Ivan Toney looks likely to stay at Brentford after a lengthy transfer saga - but will that work out well for anyone, and why did Spurs and Arsenal decide not to sign him?

Ivan Toney was meant to have his pick of transfer this summer – but with just a week left to go before the start of the new Premier League season, the striker is still stuck at Brentford, ready to move on but unable to do so. Meanwhile, the clubs expected to bid for his services has turned elsewhere.

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Tottenham Hotspur, whose name had come up frequently in conjunction with Toney, are expected to finalise a deal with Bournemouth to sign Dominic Solanke, with the Athletic reporting that the Cherries will get a club record fee for the striker. Arsenal, meanwhile, were heavily linked before the summer but appear to have cooled their interest after Toney struggled to find his best form in the second half of the season. Chelsea are still in the market for a striker, but tend to buy players younger than the 28-year-old, and Manchester United splashed out for Joshua Zirkzee instead. There appear to be few, if any, options left on the table.

Given Toney’s goal-scoring record in recent seasons, that seemed surprising. He may not have been able to find consistency after returning from an eight-month suspension for breaching gambling rules, but he scored 32 top-flight goals in the two seasons before that and even more in the Championship before Brentford were promoted. He’s strong, smart and a fine finisher, and impressed in substitute appearances for England during Euro 2024 – but he isn’t the kind of striker the clubs in the market are looking for.

Toney’s playing style treads a fine line between two types of forward – he tends to sit deep, outside the area, looking to come and get the ball rather than playing off the shoulder and looking for the final touch, but he isn’t a great technician or passer. It’s a style which means he isn’t necessarily the kind of last-man striker some clubs want or the deeper-lying player who can link up play that others might.

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Take Spurs – if they wanted a Harry Kane type, a player who can drop into deeper areas and act as playmaker for the wingers rushing past him, then Toney lacks the vision and precise passing to be quite as effective. But if they instead want someone who can hold play up and look for half yards of space inside the area, or someone who can blast past the offside trap and get through one-on-one, that isn’t Toney’s game either. In many ways, he’s arguably best suited to playing as part of a front two, but none of the big-money teams in the Premier League use that formation in attack right now.

It won’t have helped him to find his move that Brentford have been holding out for a generous transfer fee despite the fact that Toney has only one year left on his current contract. They, understandably, expect a deal which reflects his consistent goal-scoring ability and the very high ceiling he is proven to have, but that’s made it harder for teams to find the right risk and reward point on signing him. Spurs and Manchester United found a different type of forward who sits more clearly at one end of the number nine/support striker spectrum, while West Ham United, whose were mentioned once or twice, went for a cheaper option in Niclas Füllkrug.

A serious injury to his likely replacement complicates matters further. Brentford spent around £30m to sign burly Brazilian striker Igor Thiago from Club Brugge, only for him to suffer a knee injury which rule him out until the end of the year. That forces Brentford to play hard ball to an even greater extent – they can’t afford to sell him on the cheap when they will need to buy another striker if he leaves.

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The likelihood, then, is that Toney remains at Brentford at least until January, and he may well leave on a free transfer come the end of the season, by which time he will be 29. For the player, who has made it politely clear that he wants a new challenge at a bigger club, it’s a frustration. For Brentford, it’s a financial concern. They would have expected to make a healthy profit on the £10m they spent to sign him in the first place.

On the other hand, staying in the Premier League is worth a lot more money than that – and Toney’s goal-scoring ability should give them the firepower to stay clear of the relegation zone once more. If they did end up selling him, then it would leave them with a front line which lacks a proven 20-goal striker. Bryan Mbeumo is fit and again and can pick up some of the slack while Yoane Wissa is certainly very decent, but Toney remains the safest bet they have, and survival may be the stakes if any of the newly-promoted sides hit the ground running.

Toney likely won’t be all that thrilled if he finds himself lining up against Crystal Palace next Sunday, but it’s by far the most likely outcome as it stands. All he can do is keep his head down and get back to his very best, scoring the goals that would translate to a more generous wage when he enters the free agent market in a year’s time. But if he does struggle to hit his straps quickly after his first real run of poor form in the Premier League, it could be an issue for everyone involved. Brentford will have to hope that the player who comes out of the tunnel against Palace next weekend is the same focused, driven and dangerous striker they’ve had for so long, or this could end up as a transfer saga without any winners at all.

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