Why Manchester United’s perfect swap transfer deal simply isn’t going to happen

The rumour came around in January, and didn’t seem to make all that much sense – according to a number of British media outlets, including The Metro and The Sun, Manchester United had rejected a swap deal with Inter Milan that would see Denzel Dumfries go to Old Trafford as Aaron Wan-Bissaka went the other way.

Perhaps the finances didn’t make any sense once you drilled down into them, and maybe the reports were simply off base in the first place, but on the surface it’s hard to figure out why United would turn it down. After all, Wan-Bissaka, who has never really caught fire since joining from Crystal Palace for £50m, only would have had 18 months left on his contract (Inter are in the same situation with Dumfries) and the Dutchman had been an alleged target for Erik ten Hag already.

In short, the deal sounded pretty much perfect for United – something didn’t smell right. So now that the rumour has been circulating that the deal is back on the table, and that United could offer Wan-Bissaka to Inter in part-exchange, you have to assume that it’s not all that likely.

Quite a few online outlets, Caught Offside among them, have been speculating that such a deal could come round again, however, while TeamTalk have even claimed that United might try to use Wan-Bissaka as a bargaining chip in a deal for Michael Olise, which would of course send the right-back right back to his former team. That rumour doesn’t seem to have gained much traction, but nevertheless, the concept of Wan-Bissaka being traded away for player instead of money is becoming common currency on the rumour mill.

But even when you get past the fact that it didn’t happen when it was previously mooted – and there must have been a good reason for that – there are issues. For starters, while the move appears to be ideal for United on paper, it’s rather less appealing for Inter.

Wan-Bissaka’s skill set is almost strictly defensive. He’s a fantastic tackler who reads the game brilliantly and lets very little go past him – over the course of the last season, he’s made 2.25 interceptions per game (one of the highest marks in Europe) and precisely as many tackles. Throw in some tidy passing and the knack of spotting danger and getting back to clear it, and you have a very fine man to add to your back line.

But Inter don’t play with a flat back four, and very few teams prize the qualities that Wan-Bissaka has in their full-backs these days. If Inter do let Dumfries leave, which looks very likely with negotiations over a new contract stalling, then they will likely be in the market for a pacey full-back who is at least as comfortable in the final third as he is in his own box.

Wan-Bissaka, for all his ability at the back, offers precious little going forward – indeed, 93% of full-backs in Europe’s big five leagues create more shooting chances than he does for his team. He is the polar opposite of Dumfries, who makes fewer tackles than 93% of full-backs in the big five leagues, but generates plenty of chances going forward. The swap makes sense for Manchester United, but not for Inter.

The finances are a big problem, anyway, even if sporting considerations weren’t in the mixer. Wan-Bissaka’s £90,000 per week contract isn’t one of the bigger deals on United’s books, but it’s more than Inter are paying Dumfries and potentially more than they can afford to pay him anyway – hence the contract stand-off. Dumfries reportedly wants a deal in that ballpark, and Inter are standing fast. It seems unlikely that they would therefore break the bank for someone else.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, could afford to pay to bring Wan-Bissaka back – he’s earning less than Dean Henderson – but they don’t have room for a strictly defensive full-back either. Since Oliver Glasner’s arrival, Palace’s wing-backs have been pushing up past the midfield in most games, and Wan-Bissaka just doesn’t fit that plan. In truth, there aren’t many big teams in Europe whose current set-ups seem to have a spot for Wan-Bissaka.

There’s one more stumbling block - the extremely high likelihood that Ten Hag will be fired. Dumfries is reportedly his target, rather than the apple of the eye of anyone who is likely to be there in a month’s time. That doesn’t guarantee Dumfries doesn’t have other admirers at Old Trafford, and the next manager may well be a fan as well, but it’s hard to imagine Ten Hag in their dugout come August.

Most likely, United will either be forced to settle for a cut-price fee or just keep him on the books until his contract runs down next year. The idea of using him as a makeweight in a transfer deal makes a lot of sense for them as it would help keep their spend low as far as the profit and sustainability rules were concerned, but it just doesn’t seem to make much sense for anyone else. Swap deals are complex even when all parties are keen – that’s why they’re so very rare. This probably won’t be an exception.