The £50m blockbuster transfer hijack Manchester United could make to end summer window in style
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At the time of writing, there are just a little under 60 hours standing between the Premier League and the summer transfer deadline – and one saga that still needs to be sorted out satisfactorily is that of Ivan Toney.
Just weeks ago, it was beginning to look as though nobody really wanted to sign Toney, or at least that nobody wanted to meet Brentford’s £50m asking price for a player with just one year left on his contract. But then, that was before Saudi Pro League side Al-Ahli weighed in with their financial might and before Chelsea started looking at alternatives to Victor Osimhen.
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Hide AdAnd now, just as it seemed that the picture was becoming clearer, there are reports that Manchester United have thrown their hat into the ring, too. The Evening Standard claim that United have held “preliminary conversations” with Brentford about their star man with an eye to a late bid.
That muddies the waters further, but there are themes emerging amid the rumours. Chelsea, it seems, still prefer Osimhen but have yet to strike a deal with either Napoli or the player himself. Toney himself, meanwhile, has agreed personal terms with Al-Ahli (per GiveMeSport, at least) but the club have yet to meet Brentford’s price tag in full. Now United are debating whether to smash the whole story to pieces and offer Toney a different way forward.
The question is whether Toney, who struggled for consistency in front of goal last season after coming back from an eight-month suspension for breaches of The FA’s gambling rules, can offer enough extra firepower up front to be worth a huge sum of money to a club that have already spent plenty – and whether it makes sense to sign Toney after bringing both Rasmus Højlund and Joshua Zirkzee into the fold over the last year.
Toney would, presumably, be brought in as a straight-down-the-line number nine and that means that Højlund should be the immediate comparison. The 21-year-old is injured at the moment, but can he lead the line well enough – and score enough goals – to do the job on his own?
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Hide AdWhen it comes to putting chances away, Højlund can’t be faulted. His 10 Premier League goals last year came from an xG of 7.64, a conversion rate that Toney’s can’t match even at his best – when he scored 20 in 2022/23, the goals came from an xG of 18.79. That’s a small sample size on which to judge Højlund at the highest level of course, but his finishing appears impeccable. So why is Toney, at his best, able to score twice as many despite playing for a ‘smaller’ side?
Movement is likely the single biggest factor. Højlund lacks Toney’s capacity to lose a defender and while there isn’t much between them in terms of speed off the mark, the Brentford striker has the experience to create half-yards where Højlund can’t. The result is that even though the Dane is at least as good at applying the final touch to a move (at least on average, a point we’ll come back to) he doesn’t get into as many good goal-scoring positions.
A statistic which helps to make the point is the number of ‘progressive passes’ either player receives – meaning getting on the end of passes which either finish in the box or at least 10 yards downfield, essentially measuring how often a player finds themselves in space in dangerous areas. Toney picked up over six per game last season, while Højlund did so around 4.5 times, meaning that Toney gets free about a third more often than his potential rival for a place in the starting side, despite the fact that Manchester United had more possession and attempted more direct passes in the 2023/24 season.
The other issue with Højlund seems to be of a more psychological nature – he’s extremely streaky. Last season, he failed to score in any of his first 14 league games, then hit seven of his 10 goals inside six matches, and then went quiet again. The same issue crept up at Atalanta as well, when his goals came in fits and starts and were interspersed with worrying dry spells. He appears to be a confidence striker who will score bucket-loads when red hot but few, if any, for long periods. That makes having Højlund as the week-in, week-out starter a risky proposition – although there is always an argument that having him play less could stunt his development.
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Hide AdOf course, there are other options in the squad. Marcus Rashford could come across, but he hasn’t rediscovered his best form yet and in any case, there will be limited depth on the left as well assuming Jadon Sancho leaves, as is widely expected. New arrival Joshua Zirzkee has the physical presence and finishing instincts to be a true striker, too, but is more accustomed to playing a deeper, supporting role behind a number nine.
So do United need a player like Toney? Well, need may be strong, but if the aim is to hone the squad to the point where it can routinely qualify for the Champions League then he should give them the requisite firepower and consistency of play up front they have been lacking if he can get back to his very best. The debate, really, is whether they have done enough elsewhere in the squad.
The impact of the summer’s numerous new arrivals can’t be quantified yet. Perhaps Manuel Ugarte was the missing piece in midfield and maybe Matthijs de Ligt, Nouassir Mazraoui and Leny Yoro will improve the defence. Maybe Zirkzee will add some creativity and guile where it was in short supply before. If all that’s true, then spending money on the finer details – which Toney would likely be, given the options already available – makes sense.
For a while, it looked a lot like Toney wouldn’t be going anywhere despite his and Brentford’s best efforts to find a new club – but now it seems certain that he will be plying his trade somewhere other than the Community Stadium for the rest of the season. MUnited make a decent amount of sense as his next destination, but there would still be a lingering concern as to whether they have the money left to buy him.
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Hide AdThe length delay to the signing of Ugarte from Paris Saint-Germain was caused by a lack of room left to operate within the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules, and the deal will only be completed once the club are confident that Scott McTominay can be sold to Napoli to free up the funds. On that basis alone, they will need to move some more players on to bid for Toney, with Sancho right at the top of the list – but if tentative negotiations to bring Ben Chilwell and Raheem Sterling from Chelsea bear any fruit then that may be the Toney money spent there and then. Only the Old Trafford accountant have the full picture.
The real question for the manager and for Ineos, simply, is whether Toney will be able to play at his very best for a few more years despite a slight wobble following a length lay-off. His impressive cameo appearances for England over the summer suggested that there’s a decent amount left in the tank, but it would be an expensive gamble to take on a 28-year-old. Let’s see if they take the plunge…
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