Newcastle are on the cusp of the most important signing they could possibly make right now

Newcastle United have a lot to sort out this summer. A squad with plenty of players who are ageing, chronically injured or both needs something of a refresh to keep Eddie Howe’s project on track, and the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules mean they can’t just spend at will to fix all holes that they might have. The good news is that the single most important signing they could make might be just a few days away.

Joelinton was a laughing stock within month of his arrival at St. James’ Park. £40m was spent to secure the striker’s services despite the fact that he had never hit double figures in a senior season, and he scored just twice in 38 matches in his first year at the club. But since being reimagined as a defensive midfielder, he has flourished and become one of the lynchpins of Howe’s system.

Under the former Bournemouth manager, Newcastle play with a high line and a compact midfield three. The idea is to make the playing area as compact as possible and to harry and press opposing players into making mistakes before getting the ball forward quickly to the front line. For the midfielder, that means that Howe needs industrious, energetic players who can make tackles, break lines with the ball at their feet and play accurate vertical passes. Joelinton emphatically ticks every box.

There had been rumours that he would be leaving this summer. The Brazilian has just 15 months left on his current contract and many expected Newcastle to listen to offers in order to avoid losing him for free. Instead, per a number of reports including one from Fabrizio Romano, he will ink a brand-new four-year deal with the Magpies. That will make this summer much easier.

When people think about the minor footballing and financial revolution that has taken place at Newcastle since Mike Ashley finally sold the club, they normally think of Bruno Guimarães as the player who changed it all. And while he is unquestionably brilliant, and added a dash of clear-cut class to the club from the moment he arrived, it’s very arguable that Joelinton has been the better player over the last couple of seasons.

Bruno is brilliant further up the field both in and out of possession, but Joelinton does more of the hard yards in deeper areas. He makes more tackles than Bruno in midfield and in the defensive third, more interceptions and blocks, has a higher success rate with the ball at his feet, receives more passes in the final third because of his movement and makes more accurate long passes himself. For the way Howe sets out to play, Joelinton is more or less perfect. It’s hard to think of a statistical yardstick by which a Newcastle midfielder could be measured which he doesn’t exceed comfortably.

And while people think of Bruno as the more dangerous goalscorer, it’s Joelinton who has the slightly higher hit rate in front of goal – more goals and more xG per 90 minutes. He doesn’t get forward as often as his compatriot, but when he does, he’s efficient and effective.

The possible departure of Bruno this summer, with the former Lyon man linked with the likes of Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, will still sting of course, and he will be a tough man to replace, but there are plenty of players who can offer hard work, creativity and threat around the area, and very few who not only defend as well as Joelinton does but who can also transition effectively into attack. Moving on from Bruno won’t be easy. Moving on from Joelinton may have been impossible.

Keeping Joelinton will make everything else easier this summer. Newcastle will need a new midfielder (or two, perhaps, if Bruno does depart), some reinforcements for their battered back line and probably a centre-forward with 32-year-old Callum Wilson struggling to stay fit. But Joelinton staying means that they shouldn’t need to change the shape and system. They can find players that fit a template that’s already in place, and that should make life quite a lot easier.

If Newcastle lost both Joelinton and Bruno this summer, that would equate to losing the identity of the squad that Howe was built, both from a tactical perspective and in terms of losing two of the most obvious leaders in the team. Joelinton is always the first to bellow instructions or encouragement – or dish out some harsh words – to his team-mates, and his departure would leave a psychological void, not just a strategic one.

In truth, it may not hurt Newcastle to change things up a little bit – but not, perhaps, in terms of the basic fundamentals. There is an argument that their midfield can be a little too one-dimensional, with lots of blood and thunder and high-energy running but not as much guile as there could be. If Bruno does leave, it could be time to re-examine the idea of buying a more traditional number ten, who could play ahead of a combative double pivot led by Joelinton while linking play between midfield and attack a little more smoothly, potentially adding an extra dimension.

But there are few midfielders who Newcastle could sign who wouldn’t find their life made easier by playing alongside Joelinton. He isn’t just a hard worker who huffs and puffs and never stops attacking the ball – he’s an intelligent, efficient operator who makes a huge impact right the way down the field and who has the raw statistics to back that up. Newcastle have been lucky to have him, and it looks like that luck hasn’t run out yet.