Newcastle United have a painful transfer decision to make - but it can see them become a superpower

Newcastle United may be one of the wealthiest clubs in the world on paper, but they do not have unlimited spending power – and with the announcement of a pre-tax loss of £73.4m for the 2022/23 season, the board’s claims of reduced funding for transfers begin to ring true. European FFP rules and the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations mean that Newcastle’s owners will not be able to endlessly replicate the substantial splurges of the early days of the Saudi takeover – and may force the Magpies to start selling in order to keep spending and move forward.

The Premier League’s rules allow for a maximum loss of £105m over a rolling three-year period, and Newcastle now show cumulative losses of over £144m over the past two years. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they will break the rules (and risk a points deduction, as happened to Everton this season) as some of those losses won’t count against that £105m limit – investment in infrastructure, for example – but it does suggest that they are already sailing pretty close to the wind.

All of this has been factored into the club’s plans, of course, and the club are confident that they will avoid Everton’s fate. They have spent big but have largely targeted players who are in their early twenties and could potentially be sold on for a profit. The money splashed on the likes of Alexander Isak (an estimated £58m rising to £65m with add-ons), Sven Botman (£31.5m-36m) and Bruno Guimarães (£35-41m) may be substantial, but they were all signed on the understanding that they could be moved on for a profit. The same logic was applied in the purchase of players like Tino Livramento, Lewis Hall and Anthony Gordon. There is an assumption that these players will improve the team - and then be sold.

Most of the club’s fans won’t want such players to leave, of course, as all have established themselves as key players over the course of Eddie Howe’s reign – but if the club want to keep improving and adapting their playing squad, it may be a necessity. There have recently been rumblings that Paris Saint-Germain are keen on buying Bruno, for example, and if that’s the case then Newcastle may have no choice but to sell him on and take the money.

Bruno has been a colossal addition for the club since arriving from Lyon in 2022. Few players have the same combination of ball-carrying skills, creativity, willingness to win the ball back and boundless energy through the middle of the pitch. He elevated the club from the moment he arrived. But if Newcastle get the chance to double their money, say, then they are essentially forced to take it – a truth that was essentially confirmed recently by Newcastle CEO Darren Eales. When asked if every player had a price under the current circumstances, he simply replied “correct.”

That’s because it will take time for the new ownership’s investment to translate into more substantial and sustainable non-transfer income for the club. Newcastle’s revenue did increase by 39% last season, but it will be a while before the club earns enough to spend big without making sales as well. For as long as that remains the case, the reality is that Newcastle will be open to selling Bruno to PSG or elsewhere and hoping that they can reinvest the profits just as successfully.

There have yet to be any substantive rumours linking either Botman or Isak with a move away, not least because they have not been at St. James’ Park for any great length of time – but if, in a few years’ time, they can be sold on for more than was paid, then inevitably they will. This is a cycle that will have to continue for the foreseeable future, until the club is more established as a European power, for instance, with all the financial benefits that regular appearances in the Champions League bring. One campaign which ended at the group stages will not tip the scales very far.

Selling players who have earned a place in the hearts of the club’s supporters is never easy, but can be necessary. Bruno is a fabulous player, but it’s a reality of the depth and quality of the modern game that he feels more irreplaceable than he truly is. When he first arrived at St. James’ Park, he was the first sign of spring for a new era – a player who had a level of class that was a cut above those around him, and the fans justly adored him for it. A few transfer windows later, and he is slightly less of a standout, and it’s arguable that Joelinton has proven to be an even more important cog in the midfield engine.

Botman, by way of comparison, is a quality defender who is calm under pressure and comfortable with the ball, and plenty of other clubs might covet that skillset – but he isn’t the only defender who could be bought at a similar price point who can do the same sort of things. If a club did offer, say, £50m for his services, it would represent excellent business for Newcastle – a profit of around £15m and enough capital to try and find someone who is at least as good. Given that Botman is relatively inefficient in the tackle and has a surprisingly low success rate at dealing with aerial balls for such a tall man, it’s fair to say that Newcastle could do better still.

Then there’s Isak, who was outstanding in the first part of the season. He’s got lovely technique, superb off-ball movement and a cool head in the finish. It’s harder to make a case for selling him, admittedly, simply because nailed-on goalscorers rarely come cheap and both making a profit and buying a new number nine in who would be as good is much harder to do than it is for a midfielder or a central defender. Football just doesn’t produce as many central strikers as it does quality players in other roles. Still, if someone comes in with a huge offer, he will leave and Newcastle will move on.

The problem with all this cold-blooded calculation is that Newcastle fans, who haven’t had it so good since the Nineties and the days of Kevin Keegan, have taken these players to their hearts. They are all an obvious step up from everything that they’ve had before, and that will make it hard to let go. But sooner or later, they will have to – and so long as Newcastle’s scouting department keep up the quality of their work, that isn’t a bad thing. Better to be pragmatic and accept the inevitability of high-profile departures while the club builds its revenue streams and standing in the game than to cling on and make moving forward harder.

Whatever you think about the moral arguments surrounding Newcastle’s ownership, they seem to be setting the club on the right path in terms of building sustainable success. The first foundations have held up extremely well for the past two years. But there is a long path ahead, and it’s going to need some patience from the club’s support. The Tyne Bridge wasn’t built in a day.