Looking for signs of life at Wolves as Vitor Pereira faces his toughest challenge yet

Two months on from his appointment, the jury remains out on Wolves manager Vitor Pereira. The 56-year-old manager boasts a wealth of experience from a long and peripatetic career which has taken in eight countries and four continents, but the Premier League – and what was its worst defence – aren’t proving an easy nut to crack.

Since Pereira took charge, they have at least passed on the crown for conceding the most goals in the top flight (Southampton and Ipswich have now shipped more) and they have moved out of the relegation zone, but they are only one bad result away from dropping right back into the bottom three – and now face a trip to Anfield, the single toughest assignment any manager will face this season. So has their new Portuguese coach got Wolves back on the right track, and can they survive the season?

Defensive improvements but vulnerabilities remain

The first order of business was fixing a leaky defence that was struggling to keep the opposition under Gary O’Neil, especially at set-piece situations. Results have been mixed.

Pereira kicked off his tenure in promising fashion, with back-to-back wins and clean sheets against fellow strugglers Leicester City and Manchester United, but Wolves then shipped 12 goals over their next five games as they picked up just one point.

Wolves have tightened things up a little, according to the stats, allowing 1.51 expected goals per game since Pereira took over compared to 1.69 over the first 16 games of the campaign, but they still allow too many chances for his work to be called an unqualified success.

There has been a definite improvement in terms of coping with set pieces, at least, and Wolves have allowed just two goals as a direct result of dead balls since Pereira took charge, slashing the rate at which such scenarios result in goals by half compared to O’Neil’s tenure.

The addition of 6’3” centre-half Emmanuel Agbadou, who was signed from Stade Reims in January, is already looking like a smart move, too. The Ivorian defender adds physical presence to the back line and has been impressive in recent wins over Aston Villa and Blackburn Rovers in the FA Cup – games in which Wolves finally kept some more clean sheets.

But there are still vulnerabilities to pace and quick passes, especially in wide areas where the relatively aggressive positioning of the wing-backs can leave the team open down the flanks. Blackburn, not the most free-scoring side in the Championship, had some joy on the counter-attack, and teams which break quickly with skilful forwards are likely to find space. Unfortunately, Liverpool fit that description rather neatly.

The game at Anfield on Sunday will test Agbadou and those recent improvements to the limit – and may offer us a first look at deadline day addition Nasser Djiga, who was signed from Red Star Belgrade despite reported interest from Nottingham Forest. Few will expect Wolves to win against the champions elect, but a good showing from the defence would at least raise hopes that the worst issues of the O’Neil era are behind them.

Why Wolves’ midfield may be holding them back in big games

Relative to most teams in the relegation battle, going forward wasn’t so much of a concern. Injuries to players like Hwang Hee-Chan, combined with the loss of Pedro Neto in the summer transfer window, had blunted their attack to a certain extent, but of all the teams in the bottom half, only Brentford and Tottenham have scored more.

Matheus Cunha looks sharp, scoring in each of his last two games, and has been a consistent goal threat, while summer signing Jørgen Strand Larsen has added some traditional centre-forward play with his ability to hold the ball up.

Pereira has, perhaps sensibly, changed little beyond settling into the 3-4-3 formation that O’Neil dabbled with after growing dissatisfied with the results he achieved with a back four – but the emphasis on approaching the final third through the wider areas has come at a cost, with Wolves creating slightly fewer shooting chances than before.

That would be more palatable if the corresponding defensive improvement had been more significant, but there is a need to generate more creativity from the midfield. The role of holding players such as João Gomes and André Trindade has been to win possession and keep it ticking over with short passes, but they offer little impetus getting upfield – the only assists that have been provided from within that central midfield shield all season have come from Mario Lemina, who left the club in disgrace in February, and Tommy Doyle, who has started just five matches.

André and Gomes aren’t in the squad for their attacking instincts or vision, but there is too little dynamism in a midfield that could stand to be more than just another line of defence. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde has proven more venturesome and more willing to make forward runs when he’s started games in midfield, but against tougher opposition, Pereira has been understandably hesitant to play him or allow his midfielders much room to manoeuvre. It may be necessary to find a more balanced approach.

Prior to the recent 2-0 win over Aston Villa, Wolves had taken just one point from games against teams in the Premier League’s top eight – a 1-1 draw with high-flying Forest at the City Ground. The win over Villa, in which Bellegarde played an important role and scored the opener, may hint that Pereira is willing to work towards a slightly more aggressive blueprint for the team, and that it may be the way forward. The instinct to get more men behind the ball against better teams is entirely understandable, but it wasn’t producing results.

Wolves have quality in attack and the potential to spring surprise results if they unlock it by getting more players into dangerous areas when in possession – and even with Agbadou and slight improvements, their defence simply may not be good enough to hold the best teams in the league at bay when it tries to do so. If Wolves go into the game at Anfield with the mindset of trying to avoid defeat and cramp Liverpool’s style, their track record under both Pereira and O’Neil suggests that they will struggle.

Pereira himself seemed to acknowledge that in his pre-match press conference on Friday, telling the media “I’m not thinking about going there to defend for 90 minutes and take a point. I’m looking to prepare the team to play our way with our quality, and to get the best possible result.” They may well lose anyway, given how good Liverpool are, but there is evidence that a slightly more aggressive approach is the right way to go. With the league leaders in front of them on their home turf, it will take some guts to go in a more positive direction – but guts might well be something Wolves need to get something on Sunday, or if they are to survive in the top flight come the end of the season.