Arsenal should stop at nothing to sign Tel – but he won’t win them the title

When rumours that Premier League clubs were considering a move for rising Bayern Munich star Mathys Tel first started circulating, the immediate response made it look as though the 19-year-old wasn’t going anywhere. Bayern wanted to keep him, and while Tel was reportedly frustrated over a lack of minutes under Vincent Kompany, he seemed content to wait his turn. Now, that seems to have changed – and Arsenal appear to be leading the race to sign one of Europe’s most promising young players.

Numerous reports, including one from The Independent, suggest that Tel has changed his mind about staying in Munich to fight for his place. Kompany seems relatively disinterested in giving him chances – he has started just two Bundesliga games since the former Burnley manager took charge – and now a loan move is on the table. Chelsea and Manchester United are linked, too, but it’s Arsenal that appear to be at the front of the queue.

It isn’t clear yet whether such a loan deal would include an option or obligation to buy Tel, or how much such a clause might be worth, but it is fair to assume that any Premier League side making a move would want the chance to sign him for the long run. Tel is lavishly talented and while there are still gaps in his game, his immense technical quality and impressive finishing suggest a player who has all the tools to go a very long way indeed.

Why Arsenal should make signing Tel a priority

Since signing for Bayern from Rennes in a deal worth up to £24m, the young Frenchman has seemed marked for stardom. He managed 12 goals in the Bundesliga in his first two seasons with the German giants despite starting just seven matches and having the time to be offered just 6.4xG’s worth of opportunities in front of goal. His touch was immaculate, his feet fast and his finishing predatory.

Since Kompany arrived at the Allianz Arena, however, he has not been given the increased minutes most observers expected him to receive. He has featured in just eight league games and played just 256 minutes of football without scoring a goal. Apparently now off the fast-track, Tel seems to have grown frustrated and is now engineering his next steps. Bayern’s loss could be Arsenal’s gain.

Able to play across the front three but most regularly used as a left winger or centre-forward, Tel could provide support across two positions in which Arsenal have an issue with both quality and depth.

And while he has yet to register a goal since the start of the new campaign – perhaps unsurprising given his extremely limited game time – the underlying stats don’t suggest a significant drop-off in quality, with a reduction in the percentage of shots he has got on target the only red flag. Given how small the sample size is, however, it seems more reasonable to go off past form and assume that Tel is likely to become a spectacular player.

It’s his sure touch and quick, precise shot which draw the eye the most, and when combined with his pace and impressive off-ball movement, he should be lethal on the counter and provide opportunities to play the ball in behind. Arsenal need more of those qualities in a team which has lacked incisive finishers and players who can make the most of opportunities inside the box. With his progress stalled by a lack of game time this season, it’s hard to measure how quickly he can reach his ceiling or what the chances are that he gets there, but his ceiling is surely very high indeed. There are few teenagers in world football who have the same degree of obvious talent.

Significant flaw limits what Tel can do this season

While signing Tel would represent a potentially significant coup and be a strong investment for the future, however, it would be worth noting that he still has to develop at least one key area of his game, and that may limit what he can achieve in the short term – he still needs to learn how to use the ball more dangerously when he receives it in deeper positions.

While he is good at protecting the ball and manoeuvring himself into space with his first touch, he is still not as confident as he could be when it comes to beating a defender one-on-one despite his excellent control and pace, and he hasn’t yet learned the art of picking a defence-splitting pass when the chance arises – for a player who often starts on the wing, the volume of chances he creates, especially when playing in front of defenders, limits his output.

His technique and passing are sufficiently impressive that it’s hard to imagine he can’t develop those skills with the right coaching, but it does limit Tel’s efficacy when faced with deeper defences and low blocks. When there is space for him to get in behind, he is lethal. When there are men ahead of him, he can become becalmed.

For a player at an elite side – like Bayern Munich or indeed Arsenal – that means that he is unlikely to score or assist goals in large quantities until he puts the pieces of that particular puzzle together. Many teams go into their shells against such sides, and the difference in his performance against teams who press and look to attack Bayern versus those who aim to sit back may explain why Kompany has preferred to save the minutes for more experienced players like Harry Kane, Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané. Similarly, it’s hard to imagine that there won’t be games when Arsenal’s more experienced options on the left or through the middle have a certain edge over Tel.

Given what we’ve seen from Tel, it would be very pessimistic to think that he couldn’t overcome the hurdles still ahead of him, and it would be no surprise at all if he developed into a truly world-class player – but if Arsenal feel as though they need to spend on a striker who could give them a chance of reeling league leaders Liverpool in right now, there is an argument that such money could be better spent on a more complete player.

Still, Arsenal’s odds of catching Liverpool are perhaps low enough that looking to the future is a perfectly sensible idea – and Tel’s future seems set to be stratospheric. Chances to sign players blessed with such talent don’t come around too often. Arsenal should take it.