Will Arsenal's Bukayo Saka start against Bournemouth? Latest advice amid FPL GW35 dilemma

With just four weeks of the Fantasy Premier League season remaining, it’s crunch time in mini-leagues up and down the land, and every decision players make could prove to be critical. Ahead of Gameweek 35, however, one decision looms especially large – should you sell Bukayo Saka?

Saka has been one of the single most consistent points-scorers in the FPL over the past couple of seasons, but with Arenal likely to want every possible player fresh and firing at full capacity in their Champions League semi-final against PSG next Wednesday, will Mikel Arteta rest him? And how does the difficulty of Arsenal’s fixtures and their league position factor into a decision?

As 3 Added Minutes’ resident FPL expert - you can find my latest hints and tips column ahead of Gameweek 35 by clicking here, by the way - it’s my job to try and run the numbers to work out whether to sell or to hold…

Why it’s a good time to sell Bukayo Saka

Since Saka returned from a three-month injury lay-off, his level of play has been as high as ever – but the many FPL managers who put their faith in him when he came back won’t have felt the benefit.

He may have been outstanding against Real Madrid, but his league contributions have been limited. He’s only started one of the Gunners’ five Premier League matches since his comeback, never playing more than 56 minutes, and has just one solitary goal to show for his efforts. He’s playing well, but the points haven’t exactly flowed.

Still, his expected goals and assists have been through the roof given how few minutes he’s played (1.71xG and 1.24xA in just 182 minutes, which is pretty exceptional), and the odds are that if he keeps getting minutes, he’ll start scoring again – there’s a reason that his 5.7 points per game is in the league’s Top 10, and that figure is being artificially deflated by a high number of substitute appearances. Only Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland really guarantee points at a higher rate, and both cost far more.

In short, selling Saka is usually a terrible idea. He’s the kind of player that should generally be in almost every team, come rain or shine. But given that Arteta has plainly been prioritising the Champions League over recent weeks, it’s highly likely that Saka is rested to at least some extent this weekend – and when there are only four games left in the season, that’s far more relevant than it might otherwise be.

To make everything trickier, if Arsenal do come from behind to knock PSG out at the Parc des Princes, Saka is likely to be rested again. 270 minutes over the final three games only seems likely if they miss out on a spot in the final in Munich at the end of May.

Arsenal still haven’t mathematically locked up qualification for next year’s Champions League, but with a 10-point lead over sixth-placed Aston Villa it seems unlikely that Arteta will worry too much about missing out, and Saka will be rested extensively if his side do achieve an improbable victory in the French capital.

On the other hand, if Arsenal are knocked out next Wednesday… Well, Saka will probably play plenty. The downside is that his remaining games include Liverpool at Anfield and Newcastle United at home, hardly easy matches, before an admittedly simple-looking game against a relegated and largely abysmal Southampton.

If there were ten weeks left, I’d keep hold. But with four games remaining, his value already drops by something close to 20% given the number of minutes he’ll get against Bournemouth on average – and there’s some chance that it drops by far more if Arsenal do progress in Europe. This is a rare moment in which it’s probably right to sell Saka, even if it means potentially buying him back for the Southampton game in Gameweek 38.

Who to sign instead of Bukayo Saka in Gameweek 35

Of course, selling a player is only half of the equation, and you need to decide who to bring in as well. For me, there are only two right answers here, assuming you don’t have the players in question already…

Not only is Bryan Mbeumo one of the few players who has outscored Saka this season game-by-game, but Brentford’s upcoming fixtures aren’t bad at all – Manchester United at home, Ipswich Town away, then Fulham and Wolves. I might be tempted to sell him for the final day to bring back Saka if I can given Wolves’ recent form, but that’s hardly an issue.

Mbeumo also costs £2.4m less, which allows us way more flexibility in building our team – but not enough to re-sign Haaland, and that’s where my Plan B starts to kick in.

The Norwegian is now back in training and while it’s unlikely that he plays this weekend, he seems set to feature at some point before the end of the season – perhaps he’ll even be back for the Southampton match next weekend.

While I’d wait for updates from Pep Guardiola’s press conference (check 3 Added Minutes again tomorrow afternoon for a round-up of the latest injury news before the deadline), selling Saka for a cheap enough player to bring Haaland back (ideally for Omar Marmoush, whose value for the run-in now comes into question) is a very sensible alternative to simply swapping Saka for Mbeumo or a similar high-scoring midfielder – especially if your team already has Mbeumo, of course.

If you’re swapping Marmoush for Haaland, you’ll need to make up a financial shortfall of around £7m and you aren’t doing that with just one player, but swapping Saka for, say, Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest have good fixtures so I like this option if you can plan a sensible second transfer out) will get you about £4m of the way there.

When looking at even cheaper midfielders, I’m swerving Bournemouth - they have very hard games indeed - but Everton’s Dwight McNeil, back from injury, is an interesting gamble given the Toffees’ gentle upcoming games, and I don’t mind betting on the surprisingly consistent Alex Iwobi, either, especially if there’s a high chance they’ll be first bench anyway.

Whether it’s a straight swap for an Mbeumo (or Cole Palmer if you really must) or part of a move towards re-signing a healthier Erling Haaland (a superb differential if you need to play catch up over the last few weeks), however, it’s probably time to say goodbye to Saka, for a few weeks at least.

Editor’s note: This article was live for 26 minutes before it was announced that there will be no more double gameweeks, with all fixtures that could have been moved remaining in Gameweek 37. Take half of our expert’s advice accordingly, and feel free to feel a little sorry for him.