Paul Merson has nailed it - Arsenal's biggest problem ahead of Tottenham clash is obvious

Arsenal fans probably didn’t feel like they were particularly ‘lucky’ after they missed out on the Premier League title by two points last season, but perhaps they were – they went through the entire 2023/24 season without having to deal with major injuries to their most important players, most of whom have little in the way of back-up. While other sides like Manchester United and Newcastle had to work through seemingly endless fitness problems, the Gunners stayed healthy and stayed in the title race. Now their luck may have turned.

The North London Derby looms this weekend. A trip to Manchester City’s Etihad Stadium follows immediately after. Defeats in either could be extremely costly. Defeats in both would likely be disastrous and a potential full stop on a title challenge that’s barely started. In short, this is a terrible time for Arsenal to go without Martin Ødegaard.

The 25-year-old sustained an ankle injury on international duty with Norway and was pictured later wearing a protective boot. Initial scans suggested that he avoided a fracture, but the full extent of the damage remains unclear. For now, Ødegaard goes down as a doubt, but it is very likely that he will be absent against Tottenham Hotspur and perhaps against Manchester City too.

To compound matters further, Declan Rice’s needless red card in the 1-1 draw against Brighton & Hove Albion will mean that they’re missing their best midfielder as well as their number ten. That’s a lot of creativity and a lot of defensive nous gone in one go, and while this Arsenal side is certainly better than the current Spurs crop, the gap may not be so large that it can take such a big drop in quality in the starting eleven.

Former Arsenal midfielder Paul Merson’s latest, rather worried, digital column for Sky Sports hit the nail on the head: “Rice takes the ball up the pitch and Odegaard makes things happen in the final third. I don't think there's anybody that can replace Odegaard.

“I'm trying to pick a midfield three and I can't. They might be good on the ball, but they're not going to get it back when Tottenham have it… Odegaard doesn't go around and tackle people, but he does close people down. He knows the position and Rice is one of the best at his job.

“Arsenal's Premier League season all comes down to the next two games... They need four points. It's as simple as that.”

Losing Rice could hit hard, especially with summer signing Mikel Merino also out after sustaining an injury during his very first training session for the club. Rice forced more than twice as many turnovers per game as Jorginho (who will likely replace him alongside Thomas Partey) while creating more shooting chances for his team-mates – and the veteran Italian, for all his qualities, is nowhere near as comfortable carrying the ball through pressure, a potentially crucial skill against a hard-pressing team like Spurs, and nor is Oleksandr Zinchenko, the other option at Mikel Arteta’s disposal.

And going forward, if Ødegaard is indeed absent, then not only will they miss his sharp link-up play and quick thinking around the edge of the area but be forced into selection issues. With Gabriel Jesus injured as well, Arteta will effectively be forced to play Kai Havertz in the number ten role with Leandro Trossard ahead of him. That may work well enough, but Arteta has almost no tactical wiggle-room whatsoever.

Depth looked likely to be an issue for Arsenal last season but wasn’t in the end because they were, Jurriën Timber aside, lucky with the fitness of their players. Bukayo Saka, another player for whom there is no meaningful replacement in the squad, played through multiple minor injuries without issue, but could easily have missed time had he been just a fraction less fortunate. It didn’t bite the Gunners last year, but it remains surprising that it isn’t an issue that was resolved over the summer.

Merino and Raheem Sterling have been added, but that still doesn’t provide a good option should Saka miss out and hasn’t given them cover for Ødegaard, who is a very different sort of ten compared to Havertz, and one who links up with Saka with a fluidity that doesn’t come as easily to the German. The defence, at least, does look deep enough to withstand a knock or two thanks to the addition of Riccardo Calafiori, but the lack of flexibility and options at Arteta’s disposal further upfield this weekend implies that more could have been done to add depth in the summer. After all, while two players may have been added, Emile Smith Rowe and Eddie Nketiah left as well.

Of course, every team finds it harder without their best players. Losing an attacking midfielder as good as Ødegaard would be damaging for any team, no matter how well the squad was managed. But it’s hard not to suspect that Manchester City would be far less perturbed by the loss of Phil Foden, say, or Kevin de Bruyne, whose absence they dealt with for the entire first half of last season. At least Ødegaard’s injury is unlikely to be as serious as that.

Manchester City have all the cards in a title race right now, and Arsenal have done brilliantly well to make the gap narrow enough to seem manageable over the past couple of seasons. But they will still need luck to win the Premier League, and that seems to be running out – but it also seems to be something they didn’t properly plan for. Let’s see if they get away with it.