The Chelsea blockbuster £50m swap deal that could be another disaster waiting to happen
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Chelsea weren’t expected to make much of a splash when the January transfer window first opened. The first order of business was meant to be ridding Stamford Bridge of members of the so-called ‘bomb squad’ of players who had been deemed surplus to requirements – but while that remains a priority, the Blues suddenly seem determined to spend big once again.
They have already surprised pundits by making an enquiry about Manchester United’s Alejandro Garnacho, who is reportedly valued at £60m, and on Tuesday another story concerning a substantial signing cropped up – this time, the suggestion was that Chelsea were keen on Juventus striker Dušan Vlahović, who has scored over 100 goals in Italy.
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Hide AdThe Times, who were among the first outlets to break the story, have suggested that Chelsea could make the finances work by throwing left-back Renato Veiga into the deal, with Juve wanting a package worth up to £50m despite the fact that the Serbian striker only has 18 months left on a deal that seems likely to wind down.
In short, a part-exchange deal is on the table which could potentially end Chelsea’s long search for a central striker while creating another issue, which is depth at left-back. They would also be jettisoning a promising young player who only signed, for a fee of close to £12m, back in July. So does the deal make sense, and would it make the difference as Chelsea push for a European place?
Would Vlahović score the goals Chelsea need?
Since bursting onto the scene with a couple of hugely impressive seasons at Fiorentina, the 24-year-old Vlahović has struggled as often as he has shone, and a verbal spat with Juventus fans earlier in the season hints at some of the frustration surrounding his performance levels. He has managed 40 goals in 92 Serie A games for the Old Lady, hardly a terrible return, but more had been anticipated and he has been off the boil for lengthy periods. There are plenty of fans in Turin who wouldn’t lament his loss.
But Chelsea have an inconsistent striker of their own up front right now, and while Nicolas Jackson was superb at the start of the season his shooting boots seem to have gone missing along the way. On paper, Vlahović is more of a classical number nine, provides better hold-up play, has more experience and has proven himself to have an extremely high ceiling. Signing him would still be a gamble.
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Hide AdThe statistics can give us a clue as to how Vlahović and Jackson compare. The table below compares some of their raw numbers in key areas from the last year of football – and makes fairly bleak reading if the hope is to find a striker who produces more goals than the Senegalese striker. Vlahović has had a couple of outstanding seasons in Serie A, but he has not hit those heights for some time, at least not consistently.

In short, signing Vlahović with the expectation of an improvement up front may well not work. The question is whether Enzo Maresca could get the best out of the Serb once more – that version of Vlahović is undeniably a first-rate forward – and whether the player himself is capable of getting back there. He may well prove to be just as frustrating for Chelsea fans as he has for Juventus supporters, and it’s been a while since the data has suggested otherwise.
He did, at least, score more league goals than Jackson did last year but the former Villarreal man has been on better form overall this campaign, even if his output has tailed off in recent weeks. Perhaps competition for a place would bring the best out of both players, but there is every chance that Chelsea would be better off in the long run waiting until the summer to sign a forward who is more of a sure thing.
Would Chelsea regret losing Renato Veiga?
On the one hand, Chelsea could easily make a real-terms profit on Veiga by selling him for a higher effective value as part of negotiations for Vlahović, and from a strictly business standpoint that might be considered a good move – but while the Portuguese full-back has largely been a back-up this season, his performances have been highly promising.
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Hide AdVeiga has two goals and an assist in the Europa Conference League, where has been starting matches, and the stats behind his occasional outings in the Premier League are impressive, albeit over a small sample size. In particular, he has looked very comfortable going forward with the ball and looks like a real threat in the final third. Chelsea could be losing a player who has a bright future ahead of him.
They would also create a depth issue at left-back. With Ben Chilwell stuck in the ‘bomb squad’, the only other recognised senior left-back left would be Levi Colwill, who has tended to be more impressive in central defence – itself another area in which Maresca has only a few trusted starters. Were Veiga to be moved on and Marc Cucurella became injured, there would be a problem.
Chelsea could recall summer signing Caleb Wiley, a 19-year-old currently on loan at sister club Strasbourg, but he hasn’t been able to pick up regular minutes in Ligue 1 and he looks to be some way from Premier League level as it stands. Selling Veiga might be a mistake in the long term and a risk in the short term.
The best argument for this trade is that if Vlahović increases Chelsea’s goal output for the next four months, then it could dramatically improve their chances of making the top four and qualifying for the Champions League, which could have a transformational effect on the club’s financial position.
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Hide AdIf that happened, then the long-term downside of transferring Veiga would be mitigated – but there is little evidence that Vlahović is a better bet to get those goals than Jackson, who is more dynamic, quicker and currently hitting the back of the net with greater regularity, even if he does frustrate some of the Chelsea faithful. Vlahović would have to rediscover some of his best form very swiftly for this move to make sense.
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