Erling Haaland 2.0: will Man City striker break his own goal-scoring record this season?

Erling Haaland is a paradox. Not just because one person, made of flesh and marrow and sinew, has never felt so distinctly, unflinchingly robotic, but also because he can wander the hinterlands of the final third like a languid, moping poltergeist, touch the ball fewer times than an unemployed bingo caller, and yet still somehow be the most devastating presence on a football pitch.

The Manchester City striker is a man of absolutes, defined by his nuances. On the one hand he is a Viking berserker in silken pyjamas, brutish and calm, and on the other, he is an all or nothing footballing drag racer; 0-60 in 50-odd games, or thereabouts. The naked eye would have you believe that the Norwegian is either pestling opposition morale into a fine dust with a ceaseless string of goals, conjured from the ether like a magician’s handkerchief, or he is standing eerily still, like a grand marble statue of a preying lizard.

Of course, that is not necessarily true. Haaland’s lesser contributions may at time be imperceptible, but they are there. Even a juggernaut as well-appointed as City’s has little room for passengers. When all is said and done, however, it is the goals, rather than the unappreciated runs or neat hold-up play, that make the headlines. Nobody remembers Nikola Tesla for his pigeon-keeping.

And again, this is where Haaland can feel somewhat paradoxical. Already this season, we have witnessed several instances in which City’s flaxen-haired terminator has missed similarly golden chances. There have been dashes through on goal dashed, and point-blank opportunities that have drawn blanks. There have been matches in which he has scored one where he could have quite comfortably netted hat-tricks, and matches in which he has scored hat-tricks where he could have quite comfortably netted double hat-tricks.

Yet somehow, at the time of writing, he has already registered eight goals in six Premier League appearances - and nine outings across all competitions. There are two probable reasons for this apparent incongruity. Firstly, Haaland is fortunate enough to play in a side who create ample openings for him to flex his predatory instinct; for him, missing a sitter is a bit like missing a dish at a sushi restaurant - it is only a matter of time before another one sidles along the belt towards him. Secondly, he does have this happy knack for disproving the accepted wisdoms of physics and logic. The Scandinavian scores goals that nobody else can, and we know this because he scores more goals than anybody else does.

Because of this, he can almost afford to squander an xG of 1.78 against Crvena Zvezda on the basis of the fact he scored a brace from an xG of just 0.69 on the Premier League’s opening weekend. The maths just about level out over the course of an entire campaign.

But it does beg the question as to just how good Haaland could be if he were to operate at his full capacity - if somebody were to patch his software and reboot his mainframe. After nine competitive fixtures this season (and that does generously include the Community Shield back in August) Haaland has chalked up a total xG of 9.34, meaning that he has scored 1.34 goals fewer than he perhaps should have.

Last term, City’s number nine struck 52 times in 53 outings across all competitions. If, therefore, he were to maximise his output in line with the figures that the xG lab rats suggest and extrapolate that over the course of an equivalent number of appearances, he would end the season with a tally of 55 goals, edging out his monstrous record ever so slightly.

If, however, he continues to score at the rate he currently he is, then he will finish the campaign on 47 goals, give or take, a little way short of his 2022/23 pillage. In any other context that would be an absurd return, but once again, it is worth reiterating that Haaland simply cannot be compared to his peers. The only competition he ever truly faces is himself.

And that in turn lends itself to one of the most frightening Erling-adjacent paradoxes of them all - the Norwegian is the very best, and yet somehow, unfathomably, he could still be better. May the divine have mercy on us all if and when Haaland 2.0 arrives.