Forget Bryan Mbeumo – Newcastle United already have the ideal £60m transfer alternative in their sights

Newcastle United had been targeting Bryan Mbeumo for months, perhaps even years – but the Cameroonian winger won’t be heading to St. James’ Park this summer. Instead, Mbeumo will head to Manchester United and Newcastle have some work to do.

They have needed a winger for a year, at least, since the now-departed Miguel Almirón’s output began to decline. Having failed to find a replacement for the Paraguayan last summer, the failure to land Mbeumo – the pursuit broken off due to his reported £200,000 weekly wage demands – represents a potentially significant blow as the club works to consolidate its position towards the top of the Premier League ladder.

The good news is that Newcastle have at least two alternatives in mind. Both Anthony Elanga (the subject of a rejected £45m bid at the end of last summer’s transfer window) and Antoine Semenyo are reported by The Athletic as being at the top of what’s left of the Magpies’ shortlist – but one would be a far better investment than the other.

The perfect player for Newcastle to target with Bryan Mbeumo off the table

There’s no doubt that Elanga, at his best, is a player that produces champagne moments. His sparkling solo goal against Manchester United in April, one of six scored across Nottingham Forest’s impressive league season, neatly summarised everything that has made him such an immensely enjoyable player to watch.

In one goal, we saw his pace, drive, directness, finishing touch and ability to send defenders stumbling backwards with quick feet and an aggressive approach to attacking play – not only that, but his habit of scoring goals which grab headlines. That was a revenge goal, a deeply personal hint to his former employers that they should reassess their transfer policy.

In signing Mbeumo, consistently one of the best wingers in the league for the past two seasons, Manchester United hint that they may have learned a lot since letting the Swede leave in 2023. The 23-year-old Elanga has come a long way since, and has lived up to his potential in a way that many of his youthful former colleagues at Old Trafford have not. Still, that doesn’t make him the right man for the job at St. James’ Park.

At first glance, the decision between Elanga and Semenyo comes down to the kind of output you need most. Elanga scored six league goals this season, but more pertinently provided 11 more. Semenyo, meanwhile, was better at finding the back of the net – 11 times – but only offered up five assists.

Newcastle, whose attack is built around the singular talent and lethal instincts of Alexander Isak, seem to need a provider more than a goalscorer, and a quick glance at the stats suggests that Elanga fits the bill. Furthermore, the direct quality of his football fits neatly with the way Eddie Howe wants his team to play: with constant aggression, pressing, with the ball moved at his players’ feet from one phase to another as quickly as humanly possible.

Elanga would indeed be a fine signing, one whose knack for electrifying the supporters in the stands would probably produce plenty of magical moments. But the reality is that a deeper dive into the numbers, and a deeper appreciation of what Newcastle’s two potential targets are capable of, suggests that Semenyo may actually be the better buy.

Why Antoine Semenyo would be a better signing than Anthony Elanga

A caveat that needs to be taken off the table right away is price. It isn’t clear whether Elanga would cost much more than the £45m bid that was rejected a year or so ago, nor is it obvious what Bournemouth might demand. Various outlets have suggested at prices in the £60-70m, but it’s plain that such claims are guesswork, not definitive statements of the Cherries’ asking price. That remains private.

So perhaps, if Semenyo ended up being much more expensive than Elanga, he would become the second best buy for Newcastle’s specific situation. All things being even, however, Semenyo simply offers more.

Elanga registering more than twice as many assists as Semenyo is, perhaps, more of a statistical quirk than a fair assessment of their differing qualities. Elanga provided 5.7 ‘expected assists’ per game this season in the Premier League, while being at least partly responsible for 3.67 shooting opportunities per game for his team-mates. Semenyo, by contrast, created 5.8xA and 3.71 shooting chance every 90 minutes.

In short, it was the Ghanaian winger who actually generated more and better chances, albeit by the slightest margin – he was simply let down by the players on the end of the opportunities that he created.

Granted, Elanga both fashioned more chances and ended up with more actual assists in the 2023/34 season, so he has a slightly lengthier track record as a first-rate creator of chances, but with Semenyo’s two-footedness and consistently improving capacity to beat defenders on both sides of the ball and deliver an accurate final ball, it’s hardly surprising that he’s at been at least on a par with Elanga over the past year.

Taking the base line that both players are just as likely to generate chances for Isak as each other, then, Semenyo becomes the clear pick. Elanga has some fine moments, in front of goal, but Semenyo is a far more consistent scoring threat. Not only did Semenyo score five more goals this year, he also did so from an expected goals tally which was more than double that of Elanga. He gets into more dangerous areas and scores more often.

To add to that, he’s a far more effective presser than Elanga, responsible for well over twice as many turnovers per game when out of possession, and while Elanga is perhaps marginally quicker, Semenyo has plenty of pace and successfully beats defenders one-on-one more than twice as often as his Swedish counterpart. Elanga is a good fit for Howe’s direct style of play, but Semenyo should slot in just as well.

Elanga is, granted, slightly younger (Semenyo is now 25) and perhaps has slightly more potential for growth. A perceived higher ceiling is a good reason to sign a player as part of a long-term project, but Semenyo is scarcely ageing and has plenty of strong years ahead of him while producing more now, with a better all-round game, at a point in which Newcastle will once again have to compete in Europe as well as in the domestic game.

Last time they were in those demanding waters, Newcastle failed to keep track with the top four. This time around, they need to ensure that they have more quality in the squad, not just more potential. Semenyo seems like an ideal signing with Mbeumo off the board – but which direction will they go come the end of the summer?