The free-scoring £30m forward who could bring goals to Spurs, Newcastle or West Ham

According to some reports, it’s Tottenham Hotspur who lead the race – others say it’s Newcastle United, or even West Ham United. Or Fiorentina. Maybe Napoli. All that we can say with confidence is that Icelandic international Albert Guðmundsson probably won’t be a Genoa player for much longer. But is he really worth a fee of up to £30m, which is what most of the rumours suspect it will take?

Guðmundsson has some serious pedigree behind him. When he scored his first goal for Iceland against Indonesia in 2018, he became the fourth generation of his family to score for their country. His great-grandfather and namesake was Iceland’s first ever professional footballer and had a brief spell at Arsenal in the 1940s before going onto become the island nation’s finance minister. Guðmundsson’s mother, Kristbjörg Ingadóttir, was an international too, and her father was a legend of the Icelandic domestic game as well. In other words, it’s hardly shocking that the youngest member of the clan knows how to kick a ball.

And he’s been doing his work pretty effectively since signing for Genoa in January 2022. Last season, during their successful promotion campaign, he hit 11 goals and bagged four assists - clearly stepping up to Serie A hasn't slowed him down. He’s already hit the target nine times in this campaign, with a pair of assists to his name as well. The 26-year-old’s production has been hugely impressive.

Guðmundsson is notionally an attacking midfielder, but he isn’t the kind of player who likes to be tied to one part of the field. His heat maps are like Jackson Pollock paintings, with splashes of red and orange cropping up all over the final third. He’s as much a false nine as he is a number ten, who also happens to be a wide forward as well.

What he isn’t is a natural central striker, which makes his goal returns all the more impressive. Those 20 league goals over 18 months have come despite the fact he only touches the ball in the box an average of twice per game, and shoots even less often. Simply put, his conversion rate is barely believable.

His 11 Serie B goals last season came from an xG of just 8.3. The nine he has in the Italian top flight this time around were scored off 4.6 xG. Ratios like that often suggest penalty takers, free-kick specialists or players who are superb with the long shot, but only two of his nine goals this season have been scored from outside the box, against Udinese and Salernitana, and neither of them were hit from more than 20 yards out. Either Guðmundsson is extremely lucky or a truly great finisher – and watching his highlight reels strongly suggests that it’s the latter.

Many of Guðmundsson’s goals are carbon copies of each other. A late run from outside the area to split the defence, one touch to shift it away from the defender and into his stride, and then a second touch which sends the ball inside the opposite side netting. The accuracy with which he hits his shots is remarkable, and the fact that he repeats the trick so often makes it plain that it’s no fluke.

But he’s more than just a one-trick forward who pops up with the odd well-taken goal. His technique and ball-carrying skills are exemplary, and he’s brilliant at picking the ball up in deep or wide areas before producing crosses or sharp angled passes to tee up attacks. He may only shoot 1.65 times per match himself, but he generates just under five shot-creating actions every match. That's a very decent volume of creative work.

That habit of drifting all of the attacking third isn’t just the footballing version of wanderlust, but a fair reflection of his all-round game as an attacker. He’s a lethal finisher, dangerous winger and a strong central playmaker all wrapped up in one package. No wonder half of the clubs in the English and Italian top flights are keeping tabs on him ahead of the summer transfer window.

Should Spurs, or Newcastle, or West Ham or anyone else take a chance on him? At around £30m, the upper end of the price range of €30-35m often quoted in media reports, he wouldn’t be the cheapest bet but all the evidence suggests that his production is sufficient to be worth it. He was also prolific for Jong PSV as he came through the youth ranks in the Netherlands, and scored plenty in a spell at AZ Alkmaar before moving to Italy as well. His goalscoring may defy xG, but there’s nothing that suggests that it’s a result of luck.

But there are downsides – he isn’t a great defensive asset and all that movement across the pitch doesn’t help him to be a useful member of a pressing unit. Some teams aren’t set up to worry about that too much, but a club like Newcastle, who like to keep the pitch narrow and press intensely across the front three, may find it harder to accommodate him. There’s also a valid question about where he will play – he could be a winger, but he seems best suited to a free role loosely based on the number ten position, which is unlikely to work quite so well for Spurs. Guðmundsson is a fine player who offers goals aplenty, but he won’t necessarily fit every tactical system.

But let’s hope someone takes the chance, because he’s elegant as well as highly efficient in and around the box – and any teams who simply wants to score some more goals would do well to add him to their squad.