Leicester City are starting to look like survivors – but they’ve been getting a little lucky
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Just a few short weeks ago, it didn’t look much like any of the three newly-promoted sides would be competitive in the Premier League, and there was the sense that only the failures of other, more established top-flight clubs could save them. Since then, however, one of the three have finally started winning games, scoring goals, and notching up the points to pull them four points clear of the relegation zone – but do Leicester City really have enough about them to survive?
While the points column is all that counts in the end, there are several statistical red flags being flown. For starters, Leicester are in the league’s bottom three for both expected goals scored and conceded – only Ipswich Town, who the Foxes face this Saturday, have been worse by both metrics. So far, Leicester have shipped at least one goal less than they ‘should’ have done on average and scored four more than their xG suggests that they might - and no other side in the top flight has allowed more shots than Leicester’s 167.
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Hide AdIn other words, while clubs like Crystal Palace and Southampton have only scored half as many goals so far, Leicester are, all things being even, likely to regress unless they improve as a team. They have relied heavily on occasional moments of magic (and scored a few wonderful goals in the process) but that is not usually a reliable way to secure a steady supply of goals in the long run.
Stats are only a starting point, of course, but there are concerns with the eye test, too, especially in defence. In the 5-2 EFL Cup defeat to Manchester United, several issues cropped up that have been seen in numerous games so far this season – Leicester look chaotic when defending set pieces, vulnerable to quick attacks down the flanks and crosses, with marking in the area often slack, and they seem to give away too much space in front of the back line when sat deep.
It’s easy to shrug off a stunning goal like Casemiro’s midweek opener at Old Trafford as one of those things that just happens from time to time at the top level, but the total absence of pressure and the surfeit of space offered to him was extraordinary. The defensive midfield shield in front of the back four has been shown up a soft touch too often.
Even the 3-2 comeback victory over Southampton, which could prove to be a crucial win down the line, was a problematic performance in many ways. Southampton hit the bar early from a set play, then found strikers almost entirely unmarked in the box from crosses twice when the ball was slipped out wide. Leicester’s defence somehow contrived to look vulnerable both when sat deep and trying to push up, which is an unusual trick to pull off, and the result was that Southampton threatened repeatedly and even dominated for long periods.
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Hide AdThat victory over the Saints, of course, also showed off Leicester’s strengths – the worry is that those strengths are about the individual more than they are about the team. In particular, they have two young and highly gifted wingers in the form of Abdul Fatawu and loanee Facundo Buonanotte who have shown genuine daring and skill in flashes. The former, signed permanently in the summer after impressing on loan in the Championship, was the driving force behind the comeback against Southampton in the second half, while Argentina international Buonanotte has a team-high five goal contributions and scored in both of their league wins to date.
Intermittently dazzling young players like Fatawu and Buonanotte, when added to the experience and fearless finishing of old warhorse Jamie Vardy, give Leicester a way to score the excellent goals that have defied the mathematical strictures of xG. They may be young, but they are proving themselves to be difference makers. The issue is that Fatawu, especially, has been inconsistent – not unexpected with young wingers, of course, but a problem nonetheless when those same young wingers are the beating heart of the attack.
There is a sense that Steve Cooper will need to find more attacking structure, a more reliable path towards goal, to get the wins required when those players are out of form, or when Vardy’s age means he has to spend some time on the bench. Leicester were only really able to get a foothold in the game against Southampton because Fatawu was able to give the opposition defence palpitations, and because Ryan Fraser then got himself sent off while also conceding a penalty.
Some tweaks to the midfield double pivot might help. The only real creativity found in the heart of the park comes from Harry Winks, who is a fine passer willing to take chances in order to create opportunities, but who lacks defensive steel and doesn’t protect the defence effectively. On the other hand, Wilfred Ndidi is a superb defensive midfielder but provides very few chances when he wins the ball. Oliver Skipp is economical without being truly creative, and respectable off the ball without forcing healthy numbers of turnovers.
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Hide AdThe result is an imbalanced midfield unit which is neither strong enough defensively as a whole (despite Ndidi’s ability to break up attacks) nor does enough with the ball (regardless of Winks’ qualities). A more focused remit, or a move away from a double pivot and into a true midfield three could, perhaps, be a worthwhile experiment.
The fact is that so far, Leicester City have been the most successful of the freshly-promoted sides without playing particularly well. They have a few highly impressive players but lack cohesion as a unit. They give away too many chances and don’t create enough for themselves, and their nine points feels a little flattering thus far.
Against Southampton they showed gumption to come back but needed a late, late goal against ten men to make it happen. Their 1-0 win against Bournemouth at the King Power stadium a fortnight prior saw them heavily out-created and outplayed by the visitors, who mustered up more than three times as many shots on goal. In short – Leicester have been getting a little lucky.
Which doesn’t mean that they can’t or won’t improve. Cooper has experience of successfully battling relegation from his time at Nottingham Forest and is certainly capable of organising a team better than he has to this point. The defence can be tightened up, the midfield can be rethought, and perhaps Fatawu, Buonanotte, Vardy and their colleagues at the far end of the field really can keep scoring screamers and producing moments of beauty and brilliance for months to come.
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Hide AdRight now, Leicester are in the best position of any of the new boys to stay up – but they still look like they’re set for a relegation battle unless changes are made or their luck holds out a little longer. Cooper and his team have eked out an advantage thanks to occasional excellence and good fortune. It’s now on them to make sure they don’t waste it.
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