The harsh lesson that Arne Slot's Liverpool must learn from Manchester City's sudden decline

When Mohamed Salah's second-half penalty sealed an astonishingly easy win over a dispirited and seemingly broken Manchester City, it served as proof of both the strength of Liverpool's title credentials and of the extent of the sudden decline of Pep Guardiola's side. It also served as a warning to Liverpool - if you're not careful, you too can fall this far, this quickly, and you could easily do it in 2025 if you get some looming key decisions wrong.

Pep Guardiola did his best to put a laid-back face on another dismal defeat as the home fans taunted him towards the end of a one-sided match. Presumably, in holding six fingers up to the crowd, he was trying to remind people how many Premier League titles he has won, but he also showed us the number of games that Manchester City have lost since the end of October. Six defeats in seven, no end in sight.

There are a number of root causes behind their rapid and seemingly complete collapse. The injuries, most pertinently to Ballon d’Or winner Rodri. The exhaustion and lack of confidence apparent in the players who are fit. A failure to adjust tactics in the face of a league which plays more direct passes over the top and which isn't as afraid of the high press as it once was.

But another critical and frankly uncharacteristic mistake that Guardiola has made is to allow his squad to age and rot without refreshing it. Once, Guardiola ruthlessly moved players on when they could no longer contribute as he wanted them to. Now, his team seems to be clogged up with players who are past their prime, physically and technically.

Why City’s squad management has let them down

Perhaps one can't blame Guardiola for clinging onto the excellence of Kevin de Bruyne but the Belgian is now 33, has had several injuries in the past two seasons, and looks like a bad tribute band playing his own old hits. Bernardo Silva looks like a player whose spirit has been forcibly drained from his body. Ilkay Gündoğan looks like a shadow of the player who left for Barcelona. Kyle Walker has slowed down perceptibly.

Selling players at the right time was something Guardiola had become pretty good at. Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling were moved on before they lost a step. Aymeric Laporte and João Cancelo were shifted before they became a problem instead of a solution. Nobody was permitted to linger when they began the descent down the far side of their peak, and prospective malcontents were out on their ear without damaging morale in the dressing room.

The way Guardiola handled his squad was redolent of the way Sir Alex Ferguson dealt with his Manchester United teams when they dominated the Premier League in the 90s and 2000s. It didn’t matter if you were a Roy Keane or a David Beckham or a Jaap Stam, if you were no longer willing or able to lift the team on your own, you were out, and the next bright young thing was brought through in your place.

Guardiola, now, seems to be stuck with a string of players who have passed their primes, who can’t make the difference they once did, and whose theoretical replacements aren’t quite ready yet. With every passing match, one looks back at the decision to sell Cole Palmer and questions why Bernardo Silva is really still there. It’s a lesson Arne Slot will do well to heed with a significant squad refresh likely to be on the horizon.

Much ink has been spilled (and much spleen vented on social media) in response to the looming end of the contracts of several key players, with Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold all set to be free agents at the end of the season as it stands. Elsewhere, Andrew Robertson is 30 and isn’t quite producing as much as he once did, and they will have to decide what to do with Alisson with Giorgio Mamardashvili earmarked to arrive in the summer. Right now, Liverpool are champions elect. In six months’ time, they will probably be in the midst of a rebuild.

Difficult decisions on the way

There will be a temptation to look at the way the older players on that list (Alexander-Arnold is a very different kettle of fish) are playing and simply renew the whole lot. Salah has been the most influential forward in the division and, at 32, is clearly still at the top of his game. Van Dijk is still capable of dominating games at the back and may be the best defensive leader in the league. Robertson is still rock solid and perfectly productive, Alisson, injured right now, hasn’t looked ready to move towards a retirement plan when fit and available. All of them could very easily be just as good next season, and perhaps the one after.

But Manchester City and Manchester United’s past successes were built in part on the acknowledgement that no players can play at their highest level forever, there will come a time to move on, and ruthlessness is required in those moments. The odds are that at least some of Liverpool’s excellent veterans will start to slow down in the coming couple of seasons, and at that point it will only damage the club’s chances of winning further titles if they are lumbered with such players on long-term contracts.

Which isn’t to say that all of them need to be culled at once. Individual judgement calls need to be made. Salah could be playing his last great season, or he could be the league’s leading goalscorer in 2027. Van Dijk may have many miles left in his boots. But those determinations have to be made with the acceptance of a potentially painful parting in mind, or – at a bare minimum – a clear succession plan in place. Re-sign Van Dijk by all means, but make damned sure that you have a centre-back ready to take his place if he stutters.

The very fact that Liverpool have already bought Mamardashvili for an estimated £29m implies that they are ready and willing to make those tough and even distasteful decisions. Alisson is still a world-class goalkeeper, but they’ve bought the next big thing in the knowledge that it’s better to move on too early than too late and it seems probable that the Brazilian will be gone next summer.

The age of Salah, Van Dijk, Robertson and Alisson is coming to a close sooner rather than later, and it will be better for Liverpool if they don’t let them linger past their sell-by date. Deciding which can continue to play at the highest level and which cords need to be cut won’t be easy, but there has to be a willingness to say a fond farewell when the time is right if they want to stay competitive at the top. The only player than they should surely re-sign beyond a shadow of a doubt is Alexander-Arnold. The rest need to be viewed on a case-by-case basis. When it comes to winning titles, both Guardiola and Ferguson have demonstrated that sacred cows only weigh a team down.