Forget Ederson - the dazzling young goalkeepers can replace Manchester City great

It may seem surprising that Manchester City could be prepared to let Ederson, their first choice goalkeeper for seven hugely successful years, leave the Etihad this summer - but it’s a departure which is creeping closer with reports that the Brazilian has already agreed personal terms on a move to Saudi Arabia.

Fabrizio Romano claims that Al Nassr, the Pro League club who have Cristiano Ronaldo on their books, have lodged a €30m (£25.2m) bid for the 30-year-old’s services – and while City are expected to turn it down and hold out for a fee closer to €50m (£42m), it would fit a pattern of relatively ruthless recent transfer dealings which has seen them move established first-team players on before their value and performances begin to decline.

Ederson, who will turn 31 on the opening weekend of the Premier League season, may well be seen as another player who should be sold for a healthy sum before age starts to affect his value and standard of play – but selling him would create a succession crisis that Pep Guardiola would need to solve very quickly indeed.

The good news is that they already have a very capable lieutenant in place. Stefan Ortega may be even older than Ederson but has impressed in his occasional appearances since arriving from Germany two years ago and fits the mould that Guardiola wants his goalkeepers to be able to adhere to perfectly.

Like Ederson, Ortega is very comfortable playing well outside the box and indeed comes outside his area further and more frequently, is also a fine technician who has no issues controlling and distributing the ball, and even has a better save percentage when measured both in total and against the xG that he faces.

Ederson may be one of the best in the world at playing the sweeper-keeper role, but as a pure shot-stopper he is somewhat less remarkable. He may have won six Premier League titles with City but the 2023/24 season was the first in which he prevented more goals than he was expected to for three years. Ortega, meanwhile, has comfortably saved more shots than xG suggests that he should for each of the last five seasons both at Manchester City and as the first-choice goalkeeper at Arminia Bielefeld.

In other words, as brilliant a servant to the club as Ederson has been, the loss wouldn’t be so great while Ortega is still around to do his job for him – but if they’re preparing to sell Ederson at 30, then City will surely not view the 31-year-old German as a long-term solution. Someone younger is required, both to offer Ortega competition and to be the long-term first choice.

There are plenty of talented goalkeepers in Europe right now, but in an apparent rebuttal of the broader tactical trend of teams playing aggressive high lines, most of them are not the kind of players who are comfortable stepping beyond the confines of their penalty area – young stoppers like Valencia’s Georgi Marmadashvili are lavishly gifted but don’t fit the profile that Guardiola usually demands. Fortunately, there are a couple of talented goalkeepers who do.

Ajax’s Diant Ramaj immediately established himself as the number one in Amsterdam after moving from Eintracht Frankfurt last summer and the 22-year-old German, who has been tentatively linked with Arsenal and Chelsea in recent months, seems to fit the bill – and belongs to what is, undeniably, a selling club.

Ramaj spends every bit as much time outside of his area as Ederson does, is on the same page in terms of his passing and capacity to handle crosses (which is a relative weakness of Ortega’s) and, in his first season as a regular starter, prevented 1.4 expected goal’s worth of shots that should have gone in from doing so. All indicators suggest that he would be a natural fit.

He isn’t the only option, either – or even the only German. 1.FC Köln’s Jonas Urbig is another huge prospect, and at just 20 years old he has performed admirably in two consecutive seasons out on loan in the 2.Bundesliga, first with Jahn Regensburg and then with Greuther Fürth.

He has yet to play a match in the Bundesliga but has already attracted the attention of Bayern Munich – but the Bavarian giants are said to be keeping a watching brief for now, with the intention of signing Urbig further down the line once their need for a new goalkeeper becomes more acute.

There is a strong argument that Urbig doesn’t have the experience to compete for the starting job at City yet, but he prevented an outstanding 5.3xG’s worth of goals last season, is excellent outside his area, calm with the ball at his feet, and has a save percentage close to that of Ederson’s. He may be a long-term project, but all the statistical evidence (and the eye test) suggests he isn’t all that far from being ready. A year or two as Ortega’s understudy may do the trick.

There may be other names that Manchester City’s scouts have picked up on, of course – their budget and scope slightly exceeds that of 3 Added Minutes. But ultimately, while all the data we have suggests that Ortega will perform perfectly well as first choice if Ederson does end up moving to the Middle East, there would still be a need for new blood, and at least a couple of very talented and very obtainable young goalkeepers who fit the bill exactly.