I saw the defensive flaw which could completely undermine Nottingham Forest's European push
and on Freeview 262 or Freely 565
It was, perhaps, a reality check. A Nottingham Forest side which won at Anfield and took points away from the Amex Stadium and Stamford Bridge was beaten, comfortably, at home by a Newcastle United side who finally seem to be hitting their stride. The Premier League’s surprise package was outclassed, and their unexpected European ambitions looked a little less realistic by the time that the final whistle blew, at least on paper.
After scoring the opener from a well-worked set piece play, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side struggled to threaten Newcastle’s goal despite having a respectably high percentage of possession and territory. They looked limited and sometimes a little ponderous in attack whereas Newcastle, a team who many would have expected to be challenging for continental qualification, looked fluid, fast and dangerous. It could be taken as the difference between a team with pretensions on a European place and a team who actually have the quality to get there.
Advertisement
Hide AdAdvertisement
Hide AdThat wouldn’t be the whole truth, however, in part because Forest’s attacking play wasn’t much better or worse than it has been all season. For all their impressive results, a lack of creativity in central midfield has meant that possession and territory haven’t really been their friends all season. Around half of their 15 goals have come from either set pieces or counter-attacks – the moments in which the speed of their attacking midfielders and physicality of Chris Wood and their defenders can be brought to bear.
That is a limitation to Forest’s play which they have balanced out by having one of the very best defences in the league. Newcastle became just the second team to score more than once against them this season, after Brighton, and this was the first time they had shipped three. That presents that question that needs answering – can Forest’s defence hold up well enough across the season to give them a chance of a European spot, or was Sunday the day its failing were exposed?
At first glance, the stats don’t make for particularly great reading - Newcastle racked up 1.7xG’s worth of chances from 17 shots on goal, after all, not numbers that a truly high-end defence allows very often. But watching the goals tells a slightly different story.
Yes, Alexander Isak probably should have been more closely marked from that corner, but it took a pretty fortuitous rebound for the ball to land at his feet. Sure, Newcastle were caught on the counter-attack when Joelinton scored their second, but they were still able to get enough bodies back to force him to have a go from 18 yards, at least. And no, Harvey Barnes probably shouldn’t have been able to squeeze his shot in at the near post, but tired one-off errors occur even in the very tightest defences.
Advertisement
Hide AdAdvertisement
Hide AdIn other words, all three goals, although likely preventable, didn’t necessarily demonstrate a total collapse of the defence – but neither did they showcase the more concerning structural issue that Newcastle did expose on Sunday. For a team that play a low block, the visitors found it far too easy to manipulate space in and around the edge of the area.
It didn’t cost Forest a goal on this occasion, but there were warning signs. Time and again in the first half, Newcastle were able to find space around the edge of the area and get inside or create space thanks to a quick one-two. It happened when Bruno Guimarães stung Matz Sels’ palms from 20 yards in the first half, and when his curling outside-of-the-foot shot sizzled over the bar in the second. It was there when Newcastle strung five quick passes together to force a near-post save from Anthony Gordon.
Conceding 17 shots in a game is less concerning than the fact that 11 of them came from within the penalty area. Given that Forest play with a low block designed to prevent easy incursions into close range, that’s a serious worry. Newcastle simply looked to sharp and too incisive when put in close quarters with Forest’s disciplined but otherwise uninspiring defence.
The centre-backs weren’t spotting runs, and the holding midfielders weren’t getting close to their opposite numbers. It wasn’t just easy for Newcastle to create shooting chances but uncharacteristically so – space was available in ways that it never was for Liverpool or Chelsea, at least not so often. That softer touch through the centre didn’t directly led to any of the goals, but it led to plenty of very dangerous chances and a couple of near misses.
Advertisement
Hide AdAdvertisement
Hide AdNext up, Arsenal – a team that excels at manufacturing and exploiting gaps in the opposing defence, especially with Martin Ødegaard back. If Forest’s defence permits itself to be pushed and pulled about in the same way, then another defeat will likely follow.
The defensive midfielders – Nicolás Domínguez and Ryan Yates in this case – need to be better positionally. While the rest of the defence is playing a tight, narrow zonal system, it doesn’t help if Domínguez gets pulled towards the ball with every pass, or if Yates gets caught too far upfield on counters, both of which happened with a certain degree of regularity this weekend. The effort isn’t in question, but its application was, at least on Sunday.
What Newcastle did prove is that Forest need to adapt or improve to be able to keep up with good teams at their best, and they perhaps provided a blueprint for other teams as to how to attack Forest – though the middle with quick interchanges and overloads. Newcastle played narrow and direct and punished a team that is superb at dealing with crosses and wide play but lacks a certain speed of thought through the middle.
But that doesn’t mean that Forest are just pretenders to a European spot. Top four will surely be beyond them, but given the resources at the disposal of some of the biggest sides, that’s hardly unexpected. But why not a Europa League spot? Why not the Conference League?
Advertisement
Hide AdAdvertisement
Hide AdForest have shown a certain weakness but that doesn’t erase the discipline and structure in defence that they’ve demonstrated week in and week out, and it doesn’t wipe out the points they’ve already earned against other European contenders. All they have to do is prove that the space Newcastle were offered won’t be available again, and to tighten up on a few of the errors that were made, such as allowing Barnes to squeeze a strike in at the near post. Forest are still a team who can stand toe-to-toe with the best and win 1-0. As long as they continue to be that team, they may just be dusting off their passports next season after all.
Comment Guidelines
National World encourages reader discussion on our stories. User feedback, insights and back-and-forth exchanges add a rich layer of context to reporting. Please review our Community Guidelines before commenting.