Why the stats suggest that Brennan Johnson's form for Spurs isn't a passing phase

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Brennan Johnson has scored six goals in six games for Spurs - and it looks like the real deal rather than a flash in the pan.

Was it so very long ago that Ange Postecoglou seemed to be putting Tottenham Hotspur’s worst psychological issues to bed? Wasn’t it just last autumn that we thought the age of ‘Spursiness’ was slowly heading into the rear-view mirror? It feels recent, at least. Apparently it takes more than an avuncular Aussie to weed out decades of psychological demons, however.

The odds are that Fabian Hürzeler didn’t say “lads, it’s Tottenham” to his players at half-time at the Amex Stadium on Sunday, but it certainly was the Tottenham that we know, love and often pity that came out after the break. One week, they’re crushing Manchester United into a fine powder at Old Trafford. The next, they’re imploding. Once again, there seem to be no constants with Spurs, except of course for the inconsistency – oh, and Brennan Johnson.

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When Johnson glid serenely though the Brighton & Hove Albion defence with a flawlessly-timed run to slot Dominic Solanke’s through ball past Bart Verbruggen, it was the sixth time he had scored in six games – enough goals to eclipse his tally for the entirety of the 2023/24 season and encourage Peter Drury to try out a surprisingly risqué “joy of six” pun. It doesn’t take all that much to get Mr. Drury hot and bothered with a mic in his hand, in fairness, but at least among the wreckage of an otherwise dismal result there was some sincere cause for excitement among the otherwise world-weary Spurs faithful.

The sheer suddenness of Johnson’s sparkling form is quite remarkable. After signing for a steepling fee of £47.5m at the start of last September, the Wales winger managed just five goals in 34 appearances (from a total of over 10 ‘expected’ goals in his 32 Premier League games) and while responsible for plenty of chances, flashes of inspiration and darting runs, his productivity did not match his price tag.

Indeed, it’s only a month or so ago that Johnson felt compelled to delete his social media accounts after a wave of abuse from his own supposed supporters, which intensified in the wake of the 1-0 North London Derby defeat in September. It had been five months since he had last scored a competitive goal when he drew a blank in that match. He hasn’t missed the mark since.

Whether a social media detox made any difference or not, Johnson is red hot, and we’re seeing an almost entirely different player to the one that finished last season. That version of Johnson was indecisive and snatched at his chances. This version puts them all away without blinking.

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When Spurs first signed Johnson, it was a big-money gamble on potential. At former club Nottingham Forest he had earned headlines in fits and starts and showed flashes of daring and excellence, but the raw data behind his game was pretty unimpressive. He made too many poor decisions and for every brilliant goal that lit up Match of the Day, there were a dozen wayward shots or overhit crosses or dribbles that only conceded possession.

Even before his scoring streak started this season, however, the numbers behind Johnson’s performances were ticking upwards. It isn’t just his finishing that has improved (he has outshot his xG so far this season when he scored at under half the rate the statisticians think he was meant to last year), but almost every area of his game. He has gone from succeeding with 39% of his attempted to dribbles to 57%. His passing accuracy is up. He’s even winning about 10% more of his tackles.

The only area of his game that has declined is his creativity – he was responsible for 10 assists last season with just one so far this campaign, and is creating about one shooting chance less for his team-mates for every two matches – but even that isn’t the right way to look at it. Now, instead of his first instinct being to keep the ball wide and cross it, he’s cutting in closer to the six-yard box, making braver and smarter runs, and scoring rather than teeing someone else up. Every marker from the eye test to the most obscure graph on a stats website tells the story of a player who is evolving from indecisive playmaker to self-confident goalscorer.

All of which is to say that Johnson’s searing run of form doesn’t seem to be a fluke or a one-off. Perhaps he will prove to run hot and cold as confidence comes and goes (it would certainly be very ‘Spursy’ of him if so) but this is probably just the player that he can be, is, and will be going forward. One hopes that the Spurs fans who sent him poisonous messages on Instagram feel duly ashamed of themselves.

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Perhaps that’s some measure of consolation for Spurs as they lick the wounds inflicted by Brighton and themselves on Sunday – Johnson is beginning to look like a very sharp investment after all, the scouting process and outlay has been at least partly vindicated, and one key position could be locked down for the foreseeable future. Now all Spurs need to do is to stop throwing away leads in deplorable and mystifying fashion. That may take a little longer.

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