What an opening play-off victory would mean for Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Sheffield Wednesday and co

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, every team who finished in a play-off spot will be desperate to gain an advantage in the opening leg, whether they’re home or away, in order to put one foot in the final.

Not only does it give you some breathing room, but it also gives you something to protect in the second leg when the pressure ramps up even more – we dug into the statistics of how vital a opening game win can be, and just how much of an advantage it offers. Spoiler – it’s a lot.

Over the last 10 years, going back to the 2012/13 English Football League season, there have been 60 first leg ties take place up and down the country, in 42 of those games there has been a victor, and of those 42 teams to take a lead into the second leg only 10 have failed to reach Wembley.

It’s not vital, of course, Brentford showed that in 2021 when they battled back from defeat to Bournemouth to go all the way and secure Premier League status, but it certainly helps.

The Bees are one of 10 teams in the past decade to have overcome the odds, with Derby County, Watford and Bradford City amongst the others to have done so – but only four managed to follow up their comeback with promotion.

Also crucial, though, is the manner of defeat. Just once since 2012/13 has a team managed to win over two legs after losing the first leg by more than a single goal, with Northampton Town’s comeback from a 2-0 defeat the only time that it’s happened.

Losing in the opening leg stacks the odds against you, losing by more than an odd goal – historically – makes it an almost impossible task. Since the formation of the Premier League only four have overcome a 2+ goal deficit to reach the final.

So with first legs happening on Friday, Saturday and Sunday this week, any team wishing to progress knows exactly what to do to give themselves the best chance of scoring a trip to the capital. Win, and win well - don’t wait for the second leg to get the job done.

Upcoming play-off fixtures:

Championship –

Sunderland v Luton Town

Coventry City v Middlesbrough

League One –

Peterborough v Sheffield Wednesday

Bolton Wanderers v Barnsley

League Two –

Salford City v Stockport County

Bradford City v Carlisle United