Who will win the Premier League? Promotion and relegation race updates from across England

Just a few short weeks ago, we wrote up a nice and digestible rundown of how all of England’s professional leagues were shaping up in terms of title, promotion and relegation races – and quite a bit has changed since then.

So with the Premier League run-in underway and with just a couple of games left in the three divisions of the EFL, we’re going to go over all the ups and downs coming your way over the next couple of weeks, and seeing who’s on the brink of both success and disaster.

Premier League

The title race looked like a two-horse race long before Manchester City’s superb 4-1 victory over Arsenal at the Etihad on Wednesday evening – and that win makes the Citizens the favourites for become champions of England once again. They’re still two points behind Arsenal but have two more games left to play, and seven consecutive league wins under their belt, they have the form to be the frontrunners while Arsenal wobble. But as we discussed earlier in the week – it ain’t over until it’s over, and City still need to show their steel once more to bring it home.

In terms of the top four, Manchester United and Newcastle United have eked out a pretty hefty advantage as we come down the home straight – they’re six and eight points clear of fifth place respectively, with games in hand to boot. Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa are still in the conversation, as are Liverpool and Brighton & Hove Albion, who sit seventh and eighth but have extra matches to get through before the end of the road. But it’s the two Uniteds that look best placed to play in the Champions League next season, while the chasing pack will most probably have to settle for lesser European placings.

At the bottom of the table, things remain tight and tense – with five games to go, Southampton are six points back and need a minor miracle to join the list of great escapes from season past, but it’s been done before and will happen again. Whether it happens for the Saints? We’ll see, but the formbook suggests they’re in trouble.

Everton and Leicester City are the current occupants of the last two relegation spots on 28 and 29 points respectively, while Nottingham Forest and Leeds United are both sat on 30. West Ham United and Bournemouth aren’t safe yet but have buffers of five and seven points to fall back on, while Wolverhampton Wanderers and Crystal Palace have pulled clear and need just one win to hit the magical 40-point mark. Chelsea still need a draw to make it that far… it’s still a mathematical possibility…

Women’s Super League

There are four games left to play for the top two in the WSL, with Manchester United in pole position to become champions of England for the first time. Still, they only have a three-point lead over Manchester City – with a derby game scheduled for 21 May - while Chelsea are four behind but have two games in hand, and could easily retain their crown. Injury-ravaged Arsenal would join City on 41 points if they win their game in hand, so can’t be discounted just yet, especially as they face Chelsea on the same weekend as the Manchester derby takes place. Those penultimate games of the season could be absolutely pivotal.

The battle to avoid the drop is equally tense – just three points separate Spurs, Brighton, Reading and current last-placed side Leicester City. Just one team will go down to be replaced by Bristol City, who confirmed their Championship title last weekend. Coventry City will be relegated from the women’s second tier.

Championship

It pains me to say it as a Blackburn Rovers fan – but Burnley are champions, and deserve it. Vincent Kompany’s side have dominated the division for months, and wins in each of their remaining games would see them join the elite 100-point club. Also making a return to the Premier League are Sheffield United, who have secured second place having occupied the spot for most of the campaign.

The play-off race is, as usual, a hot mess. Luton Town and Middlesbrough have secured their spots, but no fewer than eight teams still hold out hopes of promotion – four points separate Coventry City in fifth (66 points) and Swansea City in 12^th. Swansea and Norwich City – and, thanks to goal difference, Preston North End – would all drop out of the race if results go against them this weekend, West Bromwich Albion likely need two wins to make it up, while Sunderland, Millwall and Blackburn all sit on 65 points. Millwall and Blackburn play each other on the final day, which could be an incredibly tense affair. It’s unlikely that either of the play-off spots will be nailed down this weekend.

At the other end, Wigan Athletic and Blackpool have found a late patch of form – but it may be too late. They are four and three points behind Huddersfield Town respectively, and the Yorkshire side have a game more to go. Reading, who like Wigan have endured a points deduction, are the last side currently sat in the drop zone, one point behind the Terriers. Rotherham United and Queens Park Rangers aren’t mathematically safe just yet.

League One

Nothing has quite yet been decided at the top of the third tier, but Plymouth Argyle (95 points) and Ipswich Town (94) both need just one win to confirm their promotions. Sheffield Wednesday, on 90 points, could still spoil the party with a slice of luck and some shock results. The Owls and fellow Yorkies Barnsley are guaranteed at least a play-off place, with two out of Bolton Wanderers, Derby County and Peterborough United joining them.

At the sharp end of the table, Duncan Ferguson was unable to stop the slide for Forest Green Rovers, who will finish firmly in last place. Britain’s greenest football club will be joined by three from Cambridge United, Accrington Stanley, Morecambe, Milton Keynes Dons and Oxford United – the latter two have the edge at the moment, while Cambridge have a game in hand to make up some points. They play Stanley this weekend, which is a huge game for both teams.

League Two

Leyton Orient have confirmed their status as champions, boasting a ten-point lead over Northampton Town going into the final couple of matches. Northampton and Stevenage both still need a win to confirm their promotions, with Stockport County and Carlisle United four points behind Stevenage and doing their level best to breathe down their necks. Assuming those two sides have to settle for the play-offs, they will vie for the fourth and final promotion slot with two out of Salford City, Bradford City and Mansfield Town, who are all on 72 points.

Rochdale’s relegation has been confirmed, meanwhile, and the Greater Manchester club will be playing non-league football next season after 102 unbroken years in the EFL – and will very probably be playing against Hartlepool United, who find themselves six points behind Crawley Town with a worse goal difference. Two wins from two would at least give them a glimmer of hope if the West Sussex side stumble.

National League

The extraordinary promotion battle between Wrexham – 110 points – and Notts County on 106 points has finally concluded with promotion for the Welsh side. Notts County, who can count themselves astonishingly unfortunate to pass a hundred points and miss automatic promotion, will at least be the favourites to win out in the six-team play-off format. Chesterfield, Woking, Bromley and Barnet will be among the competition, while Boreham Wood only need to avoid defeat on the final day to ensure they join the fun. Southend United are waiting in the wings if the Surrey side slip up. Eastleigh are theoretically still in the equation, but would require a massive swing in goal difference.

With just one game to go, the relegation battle is essentially over – Yeovil Town, Scunthorpe United and Maidstone United will all play in the sixth tier next season, while Torquay United need a win, a Maidenhead United defeat, and a seven-goal swing to stay up. Or a fourteen-goal swing to get ahead of York City, which seems rather improbable. A special mention should be made of Gateshead, who were very much embroiled in the relegation battle last time we went over all this, but went on a superb run of form to reach the safety of mid-table. A fine achievement for Mike Williamson’s side.

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In terms of the teams joining the National League next year, AFC Fylde would confirm promotion over King’s Lynn Town if they win their final National League North fixture, while Ebbsfleet United have utterly dominated the National League South and confirmed promotion a few weeks ago. Two more teams will come up via the play-offs and take a step in the direction of one day joining the Football League – phoenix club Chester City are among the contenders.